Run #6
- model
- GPT-5.1
- workflow
- large-tf-analysis (large_tf_signal_analysis)
- started
- 2026-09-10 22:00:24Z
- finished
- 2026-09-10 22:00:33Z
- tokens in / out
- 1476 / 587
- cost
- $0.0077
- dedupe key
- US500:H4:2026-09-10T17:00:00Z
- artifact
- analysis/large_tf_signal_analysis/US500/H4/2026-09-10T17:00:00Z.json
Result
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Indices sit near all‑time highs, so dip‑buyers can appear aggressively on intraday weakness",
"Geopolitical headlines around Middle East sanctions and shipping lanes can trigger sudden risk‑off then sharp reversals",
"Thin post‑US cash hours can exaggerate moves and produce false breaks around nearby levels (~7590-7585)",
"Oil above $100 and inflation fears could flip quickly if crude retreats or Fed expectations shift"
],
"regime": "ranging",
"drivers": [
"Price has pulled back from the 7660s with two sessions of lower highs and closes around 7600, signaling short‑term supply",
"Intraday ranges have expanded (notably the 09:00 and 13:00 bars) with heavy volume into the downside break toward 7600",
"Macro tone is risk‑sensitive with oil above $100 and ongoing geopolitical tension, pressuring equity indices intraday",
"Lack of a clean trend on this H4 sample suggests rotation and mean‑reversion trading around the 7600 handle"
],
"summary": "US500 is slipping off the 7660 area, with repeated failures to sustain above and price now oscillating around 7600, giving a short‑term bearish tilt within a broader range. Sellers are defending minor rallies, but strong dip‑buying could reappear near 7590-7585. Expect two‑sided trade around 7600 with a slight edge to selling bounces unless price can reclaim the mid‑7630s. Volatility is elevated enough that false breaks around intraday levels are likely.",
"confidence": 63,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
7592,
7586,
7598,
7646
],
"resistance": [
7618,
7620,
7635,
7653,
7660,
7657
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Lean short into bounces toward 7615-7635 with tight risk, but be prepared to flip or stand aside if 7635+ holds on a 15m-30m basis. Expect choppy back‑and‑forth trade around 7600 with occasional spikes on headlines.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"20:45-21:15",
"00:55-01:15",
"12:25-13:15"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "normal"
},
"invalidation_level": 7638
}Step 1 · analysis succeeded
- model
- GPT-5.1 openai / gpt-5.1
- template
- large_tf_signal_analysis v1
- tokens in / out
- 1476 / 587
- cost
- $0.0077
- latency
- 8468 ms
- logged
- 2026-09-10 22:00:33Z
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Indices sit near all‑time highs, so dip‑buyers can appear aggressively on intraday weakness",
"Geopolitical headlines around Middle East sanctions and shipping lanes can trigger sudden risk‑off then sharp reversals",
"Thin post‑US cash hours can exaggerate moves and produce false breaks around nearby levels (~7590-7585)",
"Oil above $100 and inflation fears could flip quickly if crude retreats or Fed expectations shift"
],
"regime": "ranging",
"drivers": [
"Price has pulled back from the 7660s with two sessions of lower highs and closes around 7600, signaling short‑term supply",
"Intraday ranges have expanded (notably the 09:00 and 13:00 bars) with heavy volume into the downside break toward 7600",
"Macro tone is risk‑sensitive with oil above $100 and ongoing geopolitical tension, pressuring equity indices intraday",
"Lack of a clean trend on this H4 sample suggests rotation and mean‑reversion trading around the 7600 handle"
],
"summary": "US500 is slipping off the 7660 area, with repeated failures to sustain above and price now oscillating around 7600, giving a short‑term bearish tilt within a broader range. Sellers are defending minor rallies, but strong dip‑buying could reappear near 7590-7585. Expect two‑sided trade around 7600 with a slight edge to selling bounces unless price can reclaim the mid‑7630s. Volatility is elevated enough that false breaks around intraday levels are likely.",
"confidence": 63,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
7592,
7586,
7598,
7646
],
"resistance": [
7618,
7620,
7635,
7653,
7660,
7657
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Lean short into bounces toward 7615-7635 with tight risk, but be prepared to flip or stand aside if 7635+ holds on a 15m-30m basis. Expect choppy back‑and‑forth trade around 7600 with occasional spikes on headlines.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"20:45-21:15",
"00:55-01:15",
"12:25-13:15"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "normal"
},
"invalidation_level": 7638
}
rendered prompt
system
You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).
user
Instrument: US500 Timeframe: H4 Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-10T17:00:00Z Generated: 2026-09-10T22:00:25.046Z
Just-closed bar: open 7611.7 high 7617.9 low 7592.2 close 7603.2 tick_volume 19471 spread 5
Recent H4 history, oldest first (6 bars):
time (UTC) open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-09-09 21:00 O 7648.1 H 7656.7 L 7646.2 C 7648.2 V 3856
2026-09-10 01:00 O 7648.2 H 7660.4 L 7644.7 C 7659.4 V 7532
2026-09-10 05:00 O 7659.7 H 7666.9 L 7651.9 C 7653.2 V 8546
2026-09-10 09:00 O 7652.9 H 7656.9 L 7598.4 C 7601.9 V 18357
2026-09-10 13:00 O 7602 H 7620 L 7586.1 C 7612 V 37981
2026-09-10 17:00 O 7611.7 H 7617.9 L 7592.2 C 7603.2 V 19471
Recent news that may matter for US500 (12 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-10 17:12 UTC] OpenAI targets work of Wall Street junior bankers with new ChatGPT for Financial Services (CNBC)
OpenAI launched ChatGPT for Financial Services, targeting the labor-intensive research, modeling, and pitchbook tasks traditionally handled by junior bankers.
- [2026-09-10 13:26 UTC] Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Thursday (CNBC)
Stocks tumble as oil tops $100.
- [2026-09-10 12:20 UTC] Oracle options are doing something curious heading into earnings (CNBC)
If ever there were a stock that captured the hopes and fear of the AI trade, it's Oracle.
- [2026-09-10 21:23 UTC] Yemen's Houthis close in on Bab el-Mandeb Strait in new threat to shipping - Reuters (Reuters)
Yemen's Houthis close in on Bab el-Mandeb Strait in new threat to shipping Reuters
- [2026-09-10 19:30 UTC] US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East - Reuters (Reuters)
US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East Reuters
- [2026-09-10 19:26 UTC] Jim Cramer's least-favorite tech stock gets a new analyst endorsement — our take (CNBC)
Analysts at Piper called Broadcom the "ASIC compute king" in a new note to clients.
- [2026-09-10 19:08 UTC] Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings - Reuters (Reuters)
Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings Reuters
- [2026-09-10 18:46 UTC] Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Iran, Ukraine - Reuters (Reuters)
Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Iran, Ukraine Reuters
- [2026-09-10 18:20 UTC] Here’s a rapid-fire update on our 33-stock portfolio, including Cramer’s 6 favorites to buy (CNBC)
Jim's current faves include three tech names and a bank stock.
- [2026-09-10 18:15 UTC] UAE to invest €40 billion in Germany amid slew of business deals - Reuters (Reuters)
UAE to invest €40 billion in Germany amid slew of business deals Reuters
- [2026-09-10 18:13 UTC] Iran says IAEA moves will push countries to exit NPT - Reuters (Reuters)
Iran says IAEA moves will push countries to exit NPT Reuters
- [2026-09-10 18:09 UTC] Israeli whistleblowers detail Gaza civilian toll in Venice film - Reuters (Reuters)
Israeli whistleblowers detail Gaza civilian toll in Venice film Reuters
Task: assess the state of US500 after this H4 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.
Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
"bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
"risks": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
"drivers": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
"confidence": "integer 0-100",
"key_levels": {
"support": [
"number, nearest first"
],
"resistance": [
"number, nearest first"
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "one or two sentences",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
],
"preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
"volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
},
"invalidation_level": "number or null"
}news context
{
"items": [
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/openai-chatgpt-for-financial-services-targets-work-of-junior-bankers.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "OpenAI launched ChatGPT for Financial Services, targeting the labor-intensive research, modeling, and pitchbook tasks traditionally handled by junior bankers.",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T17:12:29.000Z",
"headline": "OpenAI targets work of Wall Street junior bankers with new ChatGPT for Financial Services"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/jim-cramers-top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-stock-market-thursday.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Stocks tumble as oil tops $100.",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T13:26:24.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Thursday"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/oracle-options-are-doing-something-curious-heading-into-earnings.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "If ever there were a stock that captured the hopes and fear of the AI trade, it's Oracle.",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T12:20:51.000Z",
"headline": "Oracle options are doing something curious heading into earnings"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNSUNHSEc4V2xmVVpPcmx6cE1GaF85MVB3Tnl5ZzdyWVBlYy0zcnNzOTQ1R2ZyNFdzbmp6c2xodVlOallDQTAyeUFodEUwa0dkOFFCN3ZIcmg0V3Iyc0NiUGczTklDSzhUOGNkUUd5ZWlRME5LRGhBdHFvSDdVUm9WdjZacC0zcFdkM0xZY09LUHFDR3lua1ZXMW1GN0NxT21CTFRYNkFOVGRNMzFsTjJXS1hnejFfVTdUZHBvMEJoMmJGU2xLQnc?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Yemen's Houthis close in on Bab el-Mandeb Strait in new threat to shipping Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T21:23:11.000Z",
"headline": "Yemen's Houthis close in on Bab el-Mandeb Strait in new threat to shipping - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQQ2p0aERlM3VXMFFWMkg4ZUtIejRIWDdUNUtlbnkwLWlyTWFBNGMyUzBUVnczaGdsNGIxcjJNT3BIekZrQXhOVEdwY0ZaQ0RZVmE2SW5RWTdLN1F6M01vbXZyMXF1OE9XbHphN1dnRWxwWmNyV2V2WDg3dGVOTDR3TXd5dDFwcEl6X2pxd05LRmc4d2NkUzFMS3piTFg1eWppdW8xNWNHd0VYZ3EwOFM4a19SMmNkeE9TZlE?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T19:30:16.000Z",
"headline": "US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/cramers-least-favorite-tech-stock-gets-a-new-bullish-analyst-endorsement.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Analysts at Piper called Broadcom the \"ASIC compute king\" in a new note to clients.",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T19:26:20.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer's least-favorite tech stock gets a new analyst endorsement — our take"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxObTBDWU8wZ01YSnowWGVWbUFZQ0ozZlZaSzRYWFhuaUdxajB6T05JS29iX180anZIUWdKUUE4SjZGdzN1cmc3Tmx2bjMtT0Z4TE55bGQ1NjYxUThlU21OTnZvbVJxeTNXVjZZcXJrdG1pQzRMTnVqeGUzcVY5aGluV1V0YTh0UlN1eVBScUZTajd4S0tCaFNEWGltbE9jRHk5eS1rTFVkRHg?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T19:08:44.000Z",
"headline": "Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPdVZHZ3p3WFkzek96eVB5elNZRXdVTWoxN1ZHM0kxMlpDN1hZN3llRFBKcjRrRlY1Y1I2czhYdzBRSDcwUE91cldXdWtsTklIZk5vRlZXMkEzVDgtSy1qdElvV2N1TUgtRGhyQkV4NlRSenhVanVvU3lkWXZPdkt4ODM3cFBpbV9vdWhMMlZTSVczN0FkdmlTdm14cVc?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Iran, Ukraine Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T18:46:13.000Z",
"headline": "Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Iran, Ukraine - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/a-rapid-fire-update-on-our-33-stock-portfolio-including-6-to-buy-now.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Jim's current faves include three tech names and a bank stock.",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T18:20:12.000Z",
"headline": "Here’s a rapid-fire update on our 33-stock portfolio, including Cramer’s 6 favorites to buy"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxNX3VkT2E1dEJFUUo5OW9VQlU1SjlaeGhleXNuQmlyUkZKQnp2VFBsNlQxNkdWdWI2dHc0VUwtbGFlMHZzU3VJOXpUbmVFeWlITjlxN2Q0ZHllTTlWbThlSDZRZXB0cHNHaGRzanJlSjB2Q0RBNVVXQkpmTG5ZOThYQ0pGM3g5QTJDUEl6R05NeE0xMGJQbE1KRVRiWG9DajE2YkNnR1IwSmo4Y3VkLS1v?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "UAE to invest €40 billion in Germany amid slew of business deals Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T18:15:36.000Z",
"headline": "UAE to invest €40 billion in Germany amid slew of business deals - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxONXBmQUx6bXN0ZG9uS0xwd1JoZHg2M01NV3VFMUM3NVpYRzFEZnZwZ0JfZ2VMTkI0cncyMThHYk1rNU9kTlZQcWFlZlpTS0UzMF8zYTJuOEJVSTFvS0IyTjJ6Z3ppS25qdndFaEtKcldmcm5HNXliN3pQaktNNkRDMmxLMS1hYXJMcmxjQ1N4UVI4cHQ0V0E?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Iran says IAEA moves will push countries to exit NPT Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T18:13:49.000Z",
"headline": "Iran says IAEA moves will push countries to exit NPT - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPX3YwMVozSG9aYk5BZDkybFJFMFMxUF9nNGtNdm1mN2w3VVpwc3lYOWFWbnZoTmNFUEVFM3owWHRZSVBJdTRucFh3ckFpZUh5TW1BanFOdE1DT1lSMGFsVzhsRFZkemgtRnJPQWk2WlFJMVVmaV9KS2FrQWVBMHJhSzFzQmZHUEttOHZCSW52SEROVmVGNjFOZHdpcUZCTmd5Szl0UGFLRmE2WGpfS0FFdnNoeDI?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Israeli whistleblowers detail Gaza civilian toll in Venice film Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T18:09:48.000Z",
"headline": "Israeli whistleblowers detail Gaza civilian toll in Venice film - Reuters"
}
],
"fetched": 100,
"category": "general"
}Trigger context
{
"trigger": {
"low": 7592.2,
"high": 7617.9,
"open": 7611.7,
"time": 1789059600,
"close": 7603.2,
"source": "ea:797a99618d44",
"spread": 5,
"symbol": "US500",
"bar_time": "2026-09-10T17:00:00Z",
"timeframe": "H4",
"real_volume": 0,
"tick_volume": 19471
}
}