Run #51
- model
- GPT-5.1
- workflow
- large-tf-analysis (large_tf_signal_analysis)
- started
- 2026-09-17 05:00:24Z
- finished
- 2026-09-17 05:00:33Z
- tokens in / out
- 3850 / 552
- cost
- $0.0103
- dedupe key
- XAUUSD:H4:2026-09-17T01:00:00Z
- artifact
- analysis/large_tf_signal_analysis/XAUUSD/H4/2026-09-17T01:00:00Z.json
Result
{
"bias": "neutral",
"risks": [
"Fed hike just delivered; follow‑through repricing in yields and USD can whipsaw gold intraday",
"Geopolitical Middle East tensions can spark sudden safe‑haven flows both directions",
"Post‑Fed liquidity pockets and stop‑driven spikes around recent swing extremes",
"Current price sits mid‑range after sharp 4367→4235 washout, increasing mean‑reversion noise"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Fed’s first rate hike in years keeps real‑rate path and USD in focus for gold",
"10Y yields holding above 5% cap upside unless risk‑off flows dominate",
"Recent sharp intraday selloff from 4360s to low 4230s followed by partial rebound signals two‑way flow and stop hunting",
"Ongoing Iran/Israel/Houthi headlines maintain a geopolitical risk premium but with no clear directional edge"
],
"summary": "Price has stabilized around 4290–4300 after a sharp post‑4360s washout toward 4235 and a modest rebound, leaving gold in the middle of a short‑term volatile range. With the Fed hike just out and 10Y yields elevated, the tape is two‑sided and prone to whipsaws around nearby supports and resistances rather than a clean trend. Intraday bias is weak and tactical: fade extremes of the 4270–4345 band unless a decisive breakout with volume appears.",
"confidence": 58,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4274,
4258,
4235,
4210
],
"resistance": [
4318,
4330,
4347,
4361,
4400
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Favor short‑horizon mean‑reversion between roughly 4270–4345 with quick profit‑taking; only press momentum if price breaks and holds beyond these bounds on strong ticks. Expect headline‑driven spikes and use tighter hard stops given the post‑Fed, high‑yield backdrop.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"21:00-22:00",
"12:25-13:15",
"18:45-19:30"
],
"preferred_direction": "both",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4230
}Step 1 · analysis succeeded
- model
- GPT-5.1 openai / gpt-5.1
- template
- large_tf_signal_analysis v1
- tokens in / out
- 3850 / 552
- cost
- $0.0103
- latency
- 8160 ms
- logged
- 2026-09-17 05:00:32Z
{
"bias": "neutral",
"risks": [
"Fed hike just delivered; follow‑through repricing in yields and USD can whipsaw gold intraday",
"Geopolitical Middle East tensions can spark sudden safe‑haven flows both directions",
"Post‑Fed liquidity pockets and stop‑driven spikes around recent swing extremes",
"Current price sits mid‑range after sharp 4367→4235 washout, increasing mean‑reversion noise"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Fed’s first rate hike in years keeps real‑rate path and USD in focus for gold",
"10Y yields holding above 5% cap upside unless risk‑off flows dominate",
"Recent sharp intraday selloff from 4360s to low 4230s followed by partial rebound signals two‑way flow and stop hunting",
"Ongoing Iran/Israel/Houthi headlines maintain a geopolitical risk premium but with no clear directional edge"
],
"summary": "Price has stabilized around 4290–4300 after a sharp post‑4360s washout toward 4235 and a modest rebound, leaving gold in the middle of a short‑term volatile range. With the Fed hike just out and 10Y yields elevated, the tape is two‑sided and prone to whipsaws around nearby supports and resistances rather than a clean trend. Intraday bias is weak and tactical: fade extremes of the 4270–4345 band unless a decisive breakout with volume appears.",
"confidence": 58,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4274,
4258,
4235,
4210
],
"resistance": [
4318,
4330,
4347,
4361,
4400
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Favor short‑horizon mean‑reversion between roughly 4270–4345 with quick profit‑taking; only press momentum if price breaks and holds beyond these bounds on strong ticks. Expect headline‑driven spikes and use tighter hard stops given the post‑Fed, high‑yield backdrop.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"21:00-22:00",
"12:25-13:15",
"18:45-19:30"
],
"preferred_direction": "both",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4230
}
rendered prompt
system
You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).
user
Instrument: XAUUSD Timeframe: H4 Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-17T01:00:00Z Generated: 2026-09-17T05:00:24.678Z
Just-closed bar: open 4280.15 high 4318.1 low 4273.99 close 4297.41 tick_volume 61706 spread 18
Recent H4 history, oldest first (60 bars):
time (UTC) open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-09-03 05:00 O 4437.35 H 4443.5 L 4418.81 C 4434.91 V 45694
2026-09-03 09:00 O 4434.97 H 4495.16 L 4418.8 C 4493.42 V 53285
2026-09-03 13:00 O 4493.53 H 4510.73 L 4456.91 C 4486.2 V 99001
2026-09-03 17:00 O 4486.26 H 4494.62 L 4470.5 C 4473.31 V 37131
2026-09-03 21:00 O 4474.61 H 4487.1 L 4471.4 C 4486.37 V 25645
2026-09-04 01:00 O 4486.36 H 4487.14 L 4465.5 C 4473.76 V 53406
2026-09-04 05:00 O 4473.73 H 4490.77 L 4460.16 C 4477.8 V 55319
2026-09-04 09:00 O 4477.76 H 4479.2 L 4378.66 C 4393.89 V 59997
2026-09-04 13:00 O 4393.94 H 4448.93 L 4365.54 C 4436.36 V 102067
2026-09-04 17:00 O 4436.36 H 4440.37 L 4412.03 C 4430.1 V 47053
2026-09-06 21:00 O 4423.21 H 4435.18 L 4410.25 C 4412.64 V 29571
2026-09-07 01:00 O 4412.59 H 4419 L 4389.63 C 4398.01 V 59952
2026-09-07 05:00 O 4398.04 H 4423.89 L 4385.26 C 4411.04 V 57391
2026-09-07 09:00 O 4411.07 H 4413.74 L 4381.17 C 4396.79 V 38117
2026-09-07 13:00 O 4396.79 H 4419.57 L 4395.37 C 4414.46 V 40097
2026-09-07 17:00 O 4414.46 H 4415.03 L 4403.11 C 4406.34 V 4074
2026-09-07 21:00 O 4409.56 H 4430.13 L 4406.27 C 4426.16 V 38863
2026-09-08 01:00 O 4426.14 H 4442.93 L 4417.24 C 4436.1 V 68353
2026-09-08 05:00 O 4436.04 H 4437.8 L 4387.86 C 4394.19 V 74238
2026-09-08 09:00 O 4394.19 H 4411.71 L 4385.41 C 4411.45 V 63693
2026-09-08 13:00 O 4411.53 H 4412.86 L 4380.58 C 4393.54 V 87382
2026-09-08 17:00 O 4393.54 H 4403.66 L 4345.55 C 4355.54 V 63949
2026-09-08 21:00 O 4356 H 4365.58 L 4341.36 C 4364.74 V 32204
2026-09-09 01:00 O 4364.73 H 4384.4 L 4354.16 C 4381.58 V 59994
2026-09-09 05:00 O 4381.55 H 4412.75 L 4380.44 C 4400.61 V 51650
2026-09-09 09:00 O 4400.62 H 4415.37 L 4386.24 C 4400.13 V 55631
2026-09-09 13:00 O 4400.13 H 4434.08 L 4375.15 C 4409.56 V 96808
2026-09-09 17:00 O 4409.4 H 4421.51 L 4393.33 C 4400.85 V 47115
2026-09-09 21:00 O 4404.23 H 4406.49 L 4389.76 C 4401.12 V 33729
2026-09-10 01:00 O 4401.13 H 4420.91 L 4400.23 C 4408.46 V 71932
2026-09-10 05:00 O 4408.48 H 4434.73 L 4392.52 C 4394.92 V 65492
2026-09-10 09:00 O 4394.97 H 4400.19 L 4324.08 C 4340.07 V 83348
2026-09-10 13:00 O 4340.07 H 4376.24 L 4339.69 C 4364.04 V 108931
2026-09-10 17:00 O 4364.05 H 4367.95 L 4313.82 C 4316.55 V 71236
2026-09-10 21:00 O 4319.76 H 4334.03 L 4311.28 C 4332.06 V 36754
2026-09-11 01:00 O 4332.06 H 4340.4 L 4300.78 C 4331.74 V 79427
2026-09-11 05:00 O 4331.89 H 4360.86 L 4328.17 C 4346.97 V 70032
2026-09-11 09:00 O 4347.08 H 4390.03 L 4290.11 C 4388.61 V 70162
2026-09-11 13:00 O 4388.53 H 4402.46 L 4352.01 C 4361.73 V 110070
2026-09-11 17:00 O 4361.72 H 4370.41 L 4342.85 C 4349 V 58385
2026-09-13 21:00 O 4337 H 4347.49 L 4328.43 C 4338.59 V 39941
2026-09-14 01:00 O 4338.59 H 4355.32 L 4322.14 C 4329.47 V 68640
2026-09-14 05:00 O 4329.53 H 4338.6 L 4303.21 C 4306.63 V 66328
2026-09-14 09:00 O 4306.65 H 4311.7 L 4265.91 C 4271 V 69731
2026-09-14 13:00 O 4271.09 H 4317.67 L 4253.73 C 4315.74 V 99012
2026-09-14 17:00 O 4315.76 H 4316.46 L 4282.35 C 4298.58 V 55803
2026-09-14 21:00 O 4301.81 H 4302.62 L 4283.25 C 4293.07 V 28829
2026-09-15 01:00 O 4292.95 H 4317.38 L 4287.99 C 4304.8 V 50006
2026-09-15 05:00 O 4304.73 H 4307.65 L 4261.34 C 4262.48 V 62827
2026-09-15 09:00 O 4262.45 H 4295.79 L 4261.55 C 4290.47 V 60354
2026-09-15 13:00 O 4290.3 H 4300.36 L 4274.01 C 4295.5 V 86193
2026-09-15 17:00 O 4295.48 H 4310.67 L 4290.34 C 4293.32 V 49095
2026-09-15 21:00 O 4294.4 H 4298.97 L 4275.59 C 4277.51 V 26705
2026-09-16 01:00 O 4277.44 H 4341.05 L 4276.79 C 4321.94 V 56633
2026-09-16 05:00 O 4321.98 H 4339.1 L 4320.85 C 4330.22 V 54810
2026-09-16 09:00 O 4330.37 H 4353.47 L 4327.53 C 4347.63 V 58616
2026-09-16 13:00 O 4347.59 H 4361.53 L 4324.19 C 4346.65 V 80646
2026-09-16 17:00 O 4346.66 H 4367.2 L 4235.27 C 4264.1 V 101138
2026-09-16 21:00 O 4263.4 H 4292.28 L 4257.53 C 4280.12 V 40150
2026-09-17 01:00 O 4280.15 H 4318.1 L 4273.99 C 4297.41 V 61706
Recent news that may matter for XAUUSD (12 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-16 19:00 UTC] Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years. Plus, what's moving Starbucks and GE Vernova (CNBC)
Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.
- [2026-09-16 17:42 UTC] US Treasury gathers global financial institutions to advance Iran sanctions - reuters.com (Reuters)
US Treasury gathers global financial institutions to advance Iran sanctions reuters.com
- [2026-09-16 13:19 UTC] Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday (CNBC)
It's Fed decision day.
- [2026-09-16 08:58 UTC] Yield on 10-year Treasury hovers above 5% as investors await Fed decision (CNBC)
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates on Wednesday.
- [2026-09-16 23:54 UTC] Trump says 'hopefully we are towards end' of Iran war - reuters.com (Reuters)
Trump says 'hopefully we are towards end' of Iran war reuters.com
- [2026-09-16 23:13 UTC] US officials met Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, sources say - reuters.com (Reuters)
US officials met Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, sources say reuters.com
- [2026-09-16 21:15 UTC] Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says - Reuters (Reuters)
Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says Reuters
- [2026-09-16 20:33 UTC] Netanyahu steps up threats against directors of Gaza documentary 'NAZA' - reuters.com (Reuters)
Netanyahu steps up threats against directors of Gaza documentary 'NAZA' reuters.com
- [2026-09-16 19:37 UTC] Top Democrat on US House committee will not support Israel bomb sale - reuters.com (Reuters)
Top Democrat on US House committee will not support Israel bomb sale reuters.com
- [2026-09-16 19:12 UTC] Boeing CEO: 737 Max production taking 'a little bit longer' to stabilize than expected (CNBC)
Boeing CEO said stabilizing its 737 Max production is taking longer than expected to stabilize.
- [2026-09-16 18:04 UTC] Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing - reuters.com (Reuters)
Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing reuters.com
- [2026-09-16 17:21 UTC] Lagging sector looks poised for a rebound. Here's how Mike Khouw is trading it (CNBC)
Quietly, the communications sector has started to claw back some of the year's underperformance.
Task: assess the state of XAUUSD after this H4 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.
Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
"bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
"risks": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
"drivers": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
"confidence": "integer 0-100",
"key_levels": {
"support": [
"number, nearest first"
],
"resistance": [
"number, nearest first"
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "one or two sentences",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
],
"preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
"volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
},
"invalidation_level": "number or null"
}news context
{
"items": [
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-whats-moving-starbucks-and-ge-vernova.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T19:00:14.000Z",
"headline": "Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years. Plus, what's moving Starbucks and GE Vernova"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxPXzUwU0VnMDVwQm1aTmZIQ25odU1FYXpWRkM4R2ZTMjdwalhFVDJ3dGtWV0szd1hYRVdJY1VlRmdPemJDOG9ONy1FZXUzbWhZRkFiTVVSRkdLX19Za3h2c0RneVpmbjhVdzhiZXRmYTJtc2JwYmFUU085RXBvclZoNkM1Y1AyUGF0RjhoTFRwaHF5WFNNbFlzdEMzSTZNNnhzTHB0N0p1aXdRYjY5SUpXVHhRVEtsclZPUkNGZEpCdzBvLVJu?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": true,
"summary": "US Treasury gathers global financial institutions to advance Iran sanctions reuters.com",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T17:42:29.000Z",
"headline": "US Treasury gathers global financial institutions to advance Iran sanctions - reuters.com"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/jim-cramers-top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-stock-market-wednesday.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "It's Fed decision day.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T13:19:14.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates on Wednesday.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T08:58:16.000Z",
"headline": "Yield on 10-year Treasury hovers above 5% as investors await Fed decision"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNNVZBS2JnVTZ6bnkwemhVOGRlX2puQkR2RHNnZnpLaHRzcHMxNktCNGwtNkU2ZTJaTzRMSFZzYXRzeHVnanUtaTNIdjVZTm5wVjd5bm9iMHNndXFwRzFOSmh3QWI0T3lqU3MwVE9UenMwNWZWYURMWm1ZOHNDTzVBVmlZVjBHT0F6cEJoRE5BYTVqRVFnM3N3cjZZU3RKWFJSeGZLVUhUVkVQZW9tb0FhRThfSEpmcVZM?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Trump says 'hopefully we are towards end' of Iran war reuters.com",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T23:54:00.000Z",
"headline": "Trump says 'hopefully we are towards end' of Iran war - reuters.com"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQNVlvS0o5eGw3QnFsN1NoVTdWbElpWFhDLS14WFpCb0duUUJMYzVoS2VZSHpqQUxQWXVtN0VadTJHNnNhYlNCZmlhMDVJQVl3Y2pqTjQ2bmRuVEdDR3FKY0VGQ1Uxc1pwVzcteUNJSTB0Mm9wZHRIWUdTUmVLTUVsTEpYMFRmN21ENmtrbnZvTm9XZjZsOU5DN2JHWUYtdm5OcFJiUzJzZTVBeUJ3a3NmSEJROEFxekl5RGlMNw?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "US officials met Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, sources say reuters.com",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T23:13:24.000Z",
"headline": "US officials met Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, sources say - reuters.com"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxNUktRelVFeVlmRUh4NjlTNU5vVFNRZDBsaE9Wd2YybUlQYTNSY0NONXhUMjJEcTJzSnRjaWZNM2pNN0E4YnVyTVdLZVhOX2FmM0l1MXU2SU01NXR2aWw3bC1IY2lZM3BZbzZQQ01kN3loX09KU2x5dTd4RXl6cXU0TUd5eVppY3NSbXpibXBnRmxyeHJyUUtjME5FU2tBaHZyMDB4RXgyQ3E0dnh5X1lZY2oxOWpqQTdCQlJiZFZtYw?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T21:15:33.000Z",
"headline": "Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxPNXZudGNQSnowb0xSbmZUNFVsQzZKYkZRWG16eS1nQm1wdVY5aG9EcEcxRWpEN0tBUllFWWNMd1gtdXBNR3l0WGZoc2NFcm1WaHRaWDFRYWZPNjJ3Vi0xb3dPdElqejU1V1VSN05oXzBBeDZNaExqbGktbmQ0c3NPb2QybFRtMmhtbXFlaGY2NzVfb2RjaDg4SzE0ZWVxUzZTR0F5Wkc5Zlg4cmhLZzRWUzdObWlNbGpiZVV1bA?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Netanyahu steps up threats against directors of Gaza documentary 'NAZA' reuters.com",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T20:33:00.000Z",
"headline": "Netanyahu steps up threats against directors of Gaza documentary 'NAZA' - reuters.com"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxOYXVjVVhxZXk4MjhZM2JLYzR1cDlpdlg3QVozb1RKX0JOcE9GakdvYjBTckJxMF9WeFpiWUIyNTJVcS1RV2hHRnFrWHlwcDk1a0dDMGY0ZnVBUnBRdFpVc1FGalhCanpuX2xYSjB0ZnlVTi0yNldoQ2plZEtMSTNNQUV6UDRXSDVLdGVOdFN5M2YtMEFDT0Y3UENyTzRhdFByYk84N090MFlVSnYyUklfWWdodE0zZ05yZGlKbTFQQ3d1RjI0MUE?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Top Democrat on US House committee will not support Israel bomb sale reuters.com",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T19:37:30.000Z",
"headline": "Top Democrat on US House committee will not support Israel bomb sale - reuters.com"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/boeing-ceo-737-max-production.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Boeing CEO said stabilizing its 737 Max production is taking longer than expected to stabilize.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T19:12:52.000Z",
"headline": "Boeing CEO: 737 Max production taking 'a little bit longer' to stabilize than expected"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNa0FZY0J4cFN1dGZjZEsxUXc5aVlrd2ZJdHF5LWtEcWU2bnJ6aFZ4X1I5WHhRQ3pfZUNfVzJUYlEzbW9lSTdINmtnVFYyUXNBZW5LcXlYQS0zVUNlTllVTUhkR29xaWFhZFlsSTgzU1p5Z3FTSzJtMEpka0lHS0VoZHltRXMxME40Zldtb0xOcWxEekxIOGN5WG5vV2I5NHpZbGd6X21kTzMzT3hnWjVLUDZFejNYeEgzcEJnRFFuQlN5UQ?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing reuters.com",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T18:04:31.000Z",
"headline": "Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing - reuters.com"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/lagging-sector-looks-poised-for-a-rebound-heres-how-mike-khouw-is-trading-it.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Quietly, the communications sector has started to claw back some of the year's underperformance.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T17:21:49.000Z",
"headline": "Lagging sector looks poised for a rebound. Here's how Mike Khouw is trading it"
}
],
"fetched": 100,
"category": "general"
}Trigger context
{
"trigger": {
"low": 4273.99,
"high": 4318.1,
"open": 4280.15,
"time": 1789606800,
"close": 4297.41,
"source": "ea:797a99618d44",
"spread": 18,
"symbol": "XAUUSD",
"bar_time": "2026-09-17T01:00:00Z",
"timeframe": "H4",
"real_volume": 0,
"tick_volume": 61706
}
}