Run #50
- model
- GPT-5.1
- workflow
- large-tf-analysis (large_tf_signal_analysis)
- started
- 2026-09-17 01:00:24Z
- finished
- 2026-09-17 01:00:34Z
- tokens in / out
- 3832 / 615
- cost
- $0.0109
- dedupe key
- XAUUSD:H4:2026-09-16T21:00:00Z
- artifact
- analysis/large_tf_signal_analysis/XAUUSD/H4/2026-09-16T21:00:00Z.json
Result
{
"bias": "neutral",
"risks": [
"Post-Fed repricing with yields above 5% can extend USD strength and pressure gold further",
"Sharp intraday reversals likely as markets digest first rate hike in three years",
"Geopolitical flare-ups (Iran sanctions, Middle East tensions) can trigger sudden safe-haven spikes",
"Price is mid-range after a violent selloff, giving poor asymmetric reward unless extremes are tested"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Fed rate hike and 10Y yields above 5% have shifted macro bias more hawkish and weighed on gold",
"Previous H4 bar saw a large liquidation from 4360s to low 4230s, breaking recent support structures",
"Latest H4 candle is a modest bullish retrace off 4235–4260 support into 4280s after the Fed move",
"Market is balancing higher rates (bearish gold) against persistent geopolitical risk (supportive for gold dips)"
],
"summary": "Gold is in a post-Fed, high-volatility environment after a sharp intraday selloff from the mid-4300s into the low 4200s, with the latest H4 bar only a partial bounce to 4280. The broader structure is mildly bearish after breaking recent supports, but price now sits in the middle of a short-term 4235–4345 range, offering no clear edge. Expect choppy, stop-hunting price action as markets digest the rate hike and elevated yields. Scalps are likely best taken at clearly defined intraday extremes rather than chasing moves in the middle of the range.",
"confidence": 64,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4260,
4235.27,
4210,
4175,
4140
],
"resistance": [
4295,
4310,
4330.22,
4347.63,
4361.53
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Treat the market as a volatile, news-sensitive range between roughly 4235 and 4345, fading extensions toward these edges with tight risk rather than initiating at mid-range. Shorts are slightly favored into 4310–4350 if momentum stalls, while reactive longs only make sense on flushes back toward 4260–4235 with evidence of absorption.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"21:00-22:00",
"00:00-01:00",
"12:25-13:35",
"17:45-18:30"
],
"preferred_direction": "both",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4365
}Step 1 · analysis succeeded
- model
- GPT-5.1 openai / gpt-5.1
- template
- large_tf_signal_analysis v1
- tokens in / out
- 3832 / 615
- cost
- $0.0109
- latency
- 10032 ms
- logged
- 2026-09-17 01:00:34Z
{
"bias": "neutral",
"risks": [
"Post-Fed repricing with yields above 5% can extend USD strength and pressure gold further",
"Sharp intraday reversals likely as markets digest first rate hike in three years",
"Geopolitical flare-ups (Iran sanctions, Middle East tensions) can trigger sudden safe-haven spikes",
"Price is mid-range after a violent selloff, giving poor asymmetric reward unless extremes are tested"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Fed rate hike and 10Y yields above 5% have shifted macro bias more hawkish and weighed on gold",
"Previous H4 bar saw a large liquidation from 4360s to low 4230s, breaking recent support structures",
"Latest H4 candle is a modest bullish retrace off 4235–4260 support into 4280s after the Fed move",
"Market is balancing higher rates (bearish gold) against persistent geopolitical risk (supportive for gold dips)"
],
"summary": "Gold is in a post-Fed, high-volatility environment after a sharp intraday selloff from the mid-4300s into the low 4200s, with the latest H4 bar only a partial bounce to 4280. The broader structure is mildly bearish after breaking recent supports, but price now sits in the middle of a short-term 4235–4345 range, offering no clear edge. Expect choppy, stop-hunting price action as markets digest the rate hike and elevated yields. Scalps are likely best taken at clearly defined intraday extremes rather than chasing moves in the middle of the range.",
"confidence": 64,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4260,
4235.27,
4210,
4175,
4140
],
"resistance": [
4295,
4310,
4330.22,
4347.63,
4361.53
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Treat the market as a volatile, news-sensitive range between roughly 4235 and 4345, fading extensions toward these edges with tight risk rather than initiating at mid-range. Shorts are slightly favored into 4310–4350 if momentum stalls, while reactive longs only make sense on flushes back toward 4260–4235 with evidence of absorption.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"21:00-22:00",
"00:00-01:00",
"12:25-13:35",
"17:45-18:30"
],
"preferred_direction": "both",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4365
}
rendered prompt
system
You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).
user
Instrument: XAUUSD Timeframe: H4 Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-16T21:00:00Z Generated: 2026-09-17T01:00:24.341Z
Just-closed bar: open 4263.4 high 4292.28 low 4257.53 close 4280.12 tick_volume 40150 spread 18
Recent H4 history, oldest first (60 bars):
time (UTC) open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-09-03 01:00 O 4395.55 H 4438.35 L 4387.41 C 4437.4 V 38647
2026-09-03 05:00 O 4437.35 H 4443.5 L 4418.81 C 4434.91 V 45694
2026-09-03 09:00 O 4434.97 H 4495.16 L 4418.8 C 4493.42 V 53285
2026-09-03 13:00 O 4493.53 H 4510.73 L 4456.91 C 4486.2 V 99001
2026-09-03 17:00 O 4486.26 H 4494.62 L 4470.5 C 4473.31 V 37131
2026-09-03 21:00 O 4474.61 H 4487.1 L 4471.4 C 4486.37 V 25645
2026-09-04 01:00 O 4486.36 H 4487.14 L 4465.5 C 4473.76 V 53406
2026-09-04 05:00 O 4473.73 H 4490.77 L 4460.16 C 4477.8 V 55319
2026-09-04 09:00 O 4477.76 H 4479.2 L 4378.66 C 4393.89 V 59997
2026-09-04 13:00 O 4393.94 H 4448.93 L 4365.54 C 4436.36 V 102067
2026-09-04 17:00 O 4436.36 H 4440.37 L 4412.03 C 4430.1 V 47053
2026-09-06 21:00 O 4423.21 H 4435.18 L 4410.25 C 4412.64 V 29571
2026-09-07 01:00 O 4412.59 H 4419 L 4389.63 C 4398.01 V 59952
2026-09-07 05:00 O 4398.04 H 4423.89 L 4385.26 C 4411.04 V 57391
2026-09-07 09:00 O 4411.07 H 4413.74 L 4381.17 C 4396.79 V 38117
2026-09-07 13:00 O 4396.79 H 4419.57 L 4395.37 C 4414.46 V 40097
2026-09-07 17:00 O 4414.46 H 4415.03 L 4403.11 C 4406.34 V 4074
2026-09-07 21:00 O 4409.56 H 4430.13 L 4406.27 C 4426.16 V 38863
2026-09-08 01:00 O 4426.14 H 4442.93 L 4417.24 C 4436.1 V 68353
2026-09-08 05:00 O 4436.04 H 4437.8 L 4387.86 C 4394.19 V 74238
2026-09-08 09:00 O 4394.19 H 4411.71 L 4385.41 C 4411.45 V 63693
2026-09-08 13:00 O 4411.53 H 4412.86 L 4380.58 C 4393.54 V 87382
2026-09-08 17:00 O 4393.54 H 4403.66 L 4345.55 C 4355.54 V 63949
2026-09-08 21:00 O 4356 H 4365.58 L 4341.36 C 4364.74 V 32204
2026-09-09 01:00 O 4364.73 H 4384.4 L 4354.16 C 4381.58 V 59994
2026-09-09 05:00 O 4381.55 H 4412.75 L 4380.44 C 4400.61 V 51650
2026-09-09 09:00 O 4400.62 H 4415.37 L 4386.24 C 4400.13 V 55631
2026-09-09 13:00 O 4400.13 H 4434.08 L 4375.15 C 4409.56 V 96808
2026-09-09 17:00 O 4409.4 H 4421.51 L 4393.33 C 4400.85 V 47115
2026-09-09 21:00 O 4404.23 H 4406.49 L 4389.76 C 4401.12 V 33729
2026-09-10 01:00 O 4401.13 H 4420.91 L 4400.23 C 4408.46 V 71932
2026-09-10 05:00 O 4408.48 H 4434.73 L 4392.52 C 4394.92 V 65492
2026-09-10 09:00 O 4394.97 H 4400.19 L 4324.08 C 4340.07 V 83348
2026-09-10 13:00 O 4340.07 H 4376.24 L 4339.69 C 4364.04 V 108931
2026-09-10 17:00 O 4364.05 H 4367.95 L 4313.82 C 4316.55 V 71236
2026-09-10 21:00 O 4319.76 H 4334.03 L 4311.28 C 4332.06 V 36754
2026-09-11 01:00 O 4332.06 H 4340.4 L 4300.78 C 4331.74 V 79427
2026-09-11 05:00 O 4331.89 H 4360.86 L 4328.17 C 4346.97 V 70032
2026-09-11 09:00 O 4347.08 H 4390.03 L 4290.11 C 4388.61 V 70162
2026-09-11 13:00 O 4388.53 H 4402.46 L 4352.01 C 4361.73 V 110070
2026-09-11 17:00 O 4361.72 H 4370.41 L 4342.85 C 4349 V 58385
2026-09-13 21:00 O 4337 H 4347.49 L 4328.43 C 4338.59 V 39941
2026-09-14 01:00 O 4338.59 H 4355.32 L 4322.14 C 4329.47 V 68640
2026-09-14 05:00 O 4329.53 H 4338.6 L 4303.21 C 4306.63 V 66328
2026-09-14 09:00 O 4306.65 H 4311.7 L 4265.91 C 4271 V 69731
2026-09-14 13:00 O 4271.09 H 4317.67 L 4253.73 C 4315.74 V 99012
2026-09-14 17:00 O 4315.76 H 4316.46 L 4282.35 C 4298.58 V 55803
2026-09-14 21:00 O 4301.81 H 4302.62 L 4283.25 C 4293.07 V 28829
2026-09-15 01:00 O 4292.95 H 4317.38 L 4287.99 C 4304.8 V 50006
2026-09-15 05:00 O 4304.73 H 4307.65 L 4261.34 C 4262.48 V 62827
2026-09-15 09:00 O 4262.45 H 4295.79 L 4261.55 C 4290.47 V 60354
2026-09-15 13:00 O 4290.3 H 4300.36 L 4274.01 C 4295.5 V 86193
2026-09-15 17:00 O 4295.48 H 4310.67 L 4290.34 C 4293.32 V 49095
2026-09-15 21:00 O 4294.4 H 4298.97 L 4275.59 C 4277.51 V 26705
2026-09-16 01:00 O 4277.44 H 4341.05 L 4276.79 C 4321.94 V 56633
2026-09-16 05:00 O 4321.98 H 4339.1 L 4320.85 C 4330.22 V 54810
2026-09-16 09:00 O 4330.37 H 4353.47 L 4327.53 C 4347.63 V 58616
2026-09-16 13:00 O 4347.59 H 4361.53 L 4324.19 C 4346.65 V 80646
2026-09-16 17:00 O 4346.66 H 4367.2 L 4235.27 C 4264.1 V 101138
2026-09-16 21:00 O 4263.4 H 4292.28 L 4257.53 C 4280.12 V 40150
Recent news that may matter for XAUUSD (12 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-16 19:00 UTC] Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years. Plus, what's moving Starbucks and GE Vernova (CNBC)
Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.
- [2026-09-16 17:42 UTC] US Treasury gathers global financial institutions to advance Iran sanctions - Reuters (Reuters)
US Treasury gathers global financial institutions to advance Iran sanctions Reuters
- [2026-09-16 13:19 UTC] Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday (CNBC)
It's Fed decision day.
- [2026-09-16 08:58 UTC] Yield on 10-year Treasury hovers above 5% as investors await Fed decision (CNBC)
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates on Wednesday.
- [2026-09-16 23:13 UTC] US officials met Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, sources say - Reuters (Reuters)
US officials met Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, sources say Reuters
- [2026-09-16 22:54 UTC] US House passes Russia sanctions bill championed by late Senator Graham - Reuters (Reuters)
US House passes Russia sanctions bill championed by late Senator Graham Reuters
- [2026-09-16 20:11 UTC] Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says - Reuters (Reuters)
Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says Reuters
- [2026-09-16 19:37 UTC] Top Democrat on US House committee will not support Israel bomb sale - Reuters (Reuters)
Top Democrat on US House committee will not support Israel bomb sale Reuters
- [2026-09-16 19:12 UTC] Boeing CEO: 737 Max production taking 'a little bit longer' to stabilize than expected (CNBC)
Boeing CEO said stabilizing its 737 Max production is taking longer than expected to stabilize.
- [2026-09-16 18:04 UTC] Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing - reuters.com (Reuters)
Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing reuters.com
- [2026-09-16 17:21 UTC] Lagging sector looks poised for a rebound. Here's how Mike Khouw is trading it (CNBC)
Quietly, the communications sector has started to claw back some of the year's underperformance.
- [2026-09-16 16:55 UTC] American Airlines says 30% of seats drive half of revenue as premium cabin rush heats up (CNBC)
American says a minority of its seats now accounts for half of its revenue.
Task: assess the state of XAUUSD after this H4 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.
Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
"bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
"risks": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
"drivers": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
"confidence": "integer 0-100",
"key_levels": {
"support": [
"number, nearest first"
],
"resistance": [
"number, nearest first"
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "one or two sentences",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
],
"preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
"volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
},
"invalidation_level": "number or null"
}news context
{
"items": [
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-whats-moving-starbucks-and-ge-vernova.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T19:00:14.000Z",
"headline": "Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years. Plus, what's moving Starbucks and GE Vernova"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxPXzUwU0VnMDVwQm1aTmZIQ25odU1FYXpWRkM4R2ZTMjdwalhFVDJ3dGtWV0szd1hYRVdJY1VlRmdPemJDOG9ONy1FZXUzbWhZRkFiTVVSRkdLX19Za3h2c0RneVpmbjhVdzhiZXRmYTJtc2JwYmFUU085RXBvclZoNkM1Y1AyUGF0RjhoTFRwaHF5WFNNbFlzdEMzSTZNNnhzTHB0N0p1aXdRYjY5SUpXVHhRVEtsclZPUkNGZEpCdzBvLVJu?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": true,
"summary": "US Treasury gathers global financial institutions to advance Iran sanctions Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T17:42:29.000Z",
"headline": "US Treasury gathers global financial institutions to advance Iran sanctions - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/jim-cramers-top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-stock-market-wednesday.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "It's Fed decision day.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T13:19:14.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates on Wednesday.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T08:58:16.000Z",
"headline": "Yield on 10-year Treasury hovers above 5% as investors await Fed decision"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQNVlvS0o5eGw3QnFsN1NoVTdWbElpWFhDLS14WFpCb0duUUJMYzVoS2VZSHpqQUxQWXVtN0VadTJHNnNhYlNCZmlhMDVJQVl3Y2pqTjQ2bmRuVEdDR3FKY0VGQ1Uxc1pwVzcteUNJSTB0Mm9wZHRIWUdTUmVLTUVsTEpYMFRmN21ENmtrbnZvTm9XZjZsOU5DN2JHWUYtdm5OcFJiUzJzZTVBeUJ3a3NmSEJROEFxekl5RGlMNw?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "US officials met Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, sources say Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T23:13:24.000Z",
"headline": "US officials met Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, sources say - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxQdGtKVXRwQXN1c3J1bnpHcXNvRzJEbE9DVEVqV3JOQWttNmNhbHR3ekdVNWhKY1VUSHVuUmZvLXJILXNXRWI1bWhpSnJNV1BqUGhESUl0dGFpUUJDVmtvTmZpeV9ZR3F3bUhJZGFfNllUdENsemJHd0xubFBzUy0yanFES0xxX0FPc1p4UHpNQnh6VU1NSmhwOHp1ZHdka0ItUGlKN0NlcE1Id2J1RjVpcUVZLVZlcFZ6bnd1R0FMVQ?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "US House passes Russia sanctions bill championed by late Senator Graham Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T22:54:05.000Z",
"headline": "US House passes Russia sanctions bill championed by late Senator Graham - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxNUktRelVFeVlmRUh4NjlTNU5vVFNRZDBsaE9Wd2YybUlQYTNSY0NONXhUMjJEcTJzSnRjaWZNM2pNN0E4YnVyTVdLZVhOX2FmM0l1MXU2SU01NXR2aWw3bC1IY2lZM3BZbzZQQ01kN3loX09KU2x5dTd4RXl6cXU0TUd5eVppY3NSbXpibXBnRmxyeHJyUUtjME5FU2tBaHZyMDB4RXgyQ3E0dnh5X1lZY2oxOWpqQTdCQlJiZFZtYw?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T20:11:13.000Z",
"headline": "Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxOYXVjVVhxZXk4MjhZM2JLYzR1cDlpdlg3QVozb1RKX0JOcE9GakdvYjBTckJxMF9WeFpiWUIyNTJVcS1RV2hHRnFrWHlwcDk1a0dDMGY0ZnVBUnBRdFpVc1FGalhCanpuX2xYSjB0ZnlVTi0yNldoQ2plZEtMSTNNQUV6UDRXSDVLdGVOdFN5M2YtMEFDT0Y3UENyTzRhdFByYk84N090MFlVSnYyUklfWWdodE0zZ05yZGlKbTFQQ3d1RjI0MUE?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Top Democrat on US House committee will not support Israel bomb sale Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T19:37:30.000Z",
"headline": "Top Democrat on US House committee will not support Israel bomb sale - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/boeing-ceo-737-max-production.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Boeing CEO said stabilizing its 737 Max production is taking longer than expected to stabilize.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T19:12:52.000Z",
"headline": "Boeing CEO: 737 Max production taking 'a little bit longer' to stabilize than expected"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNa0FZY0J4cFN1dGZjZEsxUXc5aVlrd2ZJdHF5LWtEcWU2bnJ6aFZ4X1I5WHhRQ3pfZUNfVzJUYlEzbW9lSTdINmtnVFYyUXNBZW5LcXlYQS0zVUNlTllVTUhkR29xaWFhZFlsSTgzU1p5Z3FTSzJtMEpka0lHS0VoZHltRXMxME40Zldtb0xOcWxEekxIOGN5WG5vV2I5NHpZbGd6X21kTzMzT3hnWjVLUDZFejNYeEgzcEJnRFFuQlN5UQ?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing reuters.com",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T18:04:31.000Z",
"headline": "Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing - reuters.com"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/lagging-sector-looks-poised-for-a-rebound-heres-how-mike-khouw-is-trading-it.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Quietly, the communications sector has started to claw back some of the year's underperformance.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T17:21:49.000Z",
"headline": "Lagging sector looks poised for a rebound. Here's how Mike Khouw is trading it"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/american-airlines-ceo-first-class-seats.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "American says a minority of its seats now accounts for half of its revenue.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T16:55:44.000Z",
"headline": "American Airlines says 30% of seats drive half of revenue as premium cabin rush heats up"
}
],
"fetched": 100,
"category": "general"
}Trigger context
{
"trigger": {
"low": 4257.53,
"high": 4292.28,
"open": 4263.4,
"time": 1789592400,
"close": 4280.12,
"source": "ea:797a99618d44",
"spread": 18,
"symbol": "XAUUSD",
"bar_time": "2026-09-16T21:00:00Z",
"timeframe": "H4",
"real_volume": 0,
"tick_volume": 40150
}
}