Run #49
- model
- GPT-5.1
- workflow
- large-tf-analysis (large_tf_signal_analysis)
- started
- 2026-09-16 22:00:24Z
- finished
- 2026-09-16 22:00:36Z
- tokens in / out
- 3848 / 628
- cost
- $0.0111
- dedupe key
- XAUUSD:D1:2026-09-15T21:00:00Z
- artifact
- analysis/large_tf_signal_analysis/XAUUSD/D1/2026-09-15T21:00:00Z.json
Result
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Post-Fed price action can mean-revert sharply after the initial move",
"Geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East could trigger sudden safe-haven gold bids",
"Very elevated absolute price levels increase risk of air pockets and wider intraday ranges",
"Any quick reversal in yields or USD after the rate hike could unwind the current downside pressure"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Fed’s first rate hike in years and 10-year yields holding above 5% pressured gold lower",
"Follow-through selling after failing to reclaim the 4400–4450 area and losing the 4300 handle intraday",
"Rising tick volume into the recent downswing signals active repositioning rather than quiet profit-taking",
"Geopolitical tensions (Houthis, Middle East) provide an offsetting tail-risk bid but have not dominated price yet"
],
"summary": "Gold just printed a wide-range down day, rejecting a push toward 4370 and closing back near recent lows around 4260, confirming near-term downside pressure after the Fed hike. The broader trend is still elevated but momentum has rolled over from the 4600s, and sellers are now defending the 4350–4400 area. For the next H4/D1 window, expect choppy, volatile trade with a slight bearish tilt while price remains below roughly 4350. Sharp reversals are possible if yields or the dollar give back post-Fed gains or if geopolitical headlines escalate.",
"confidence": 64,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4235.3,
4200,
4165,
4107,
4055,
4000,
3969
],
"resistance": [
4295,
4350,
4375,
4400,
4450,
4520,
4605
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Focus on short setups into bounces below 4350 while today’s low around 4235 holds as the first intraday target area; expect whippy ranges around prior day’s high/low. Avoid chasing moves immediately after major US data or during the post-rollover liquidity dip, as spreads and slippage can spike.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"20:45-21:30",
"21:00-22:00",
"12:25-13:15",
"18:55-19:30"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4375
}Step 1 · analysis succeeded
- model
- GPT-5.1 openai / gpt-5.1
- template
- large_tf_signal_analysis v1
- tokens in / out
- 3848 / 628
- cost
- $0.0111
- latency
- 10796 ms
- logged
- 2026-09-16 22:00:35Z
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Post-Fed price action can mean-revert sharply after the initial move",
"Geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East could trigger sudden safe-haven gold bids",
"Very elevated absolute price levels increase risk of air pockets and wider intraday ranges",
"Any quick reversal in yields or USD after the rate hike could unwind the current downside pressure"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Fed’s first rate hike in years and 10-year yields holding above 5% pressured gold lower",
"Follow-through selling after failing to reclaim the 4400–4450 area and losing the 4300 handle intraday",
"Rising tick volume into the recent downswing signals active repositioning rather than quiet profit-taking",
"Geopolitical tensions (Houthis, Middle East) provide an offsetting tail-risk bid but have not dominated price yet"
],
"summary": "Gold just printed a wide-range down day, rejecting a push toward 4370 and closing back near recent lows around 4260, confirming near-term downside pressure after the Fed hike. The broader trend is still elevated but momentum has rolled over from the 4600s, and sellers are now defending the 4350–4400 area. For the next H4/D1 window, expect choppy, volatile trade with a slight bearish tilt while price remains below roughly 4350. Sharp reversals are possible if yields or the dollar give back post-Fed gains or if geopolitical headlines escalate.",
"confidence": 64,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4235.3,
4200,
4165,
4107,
4055,
4000,
3969
],
"resistance": [
4295,
4350,
4375,
4400,
4450,
4520,
4605
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Focus on short setups into bounces below 4350 while today’s low around 4235 holds as the first intraday target area; expect whippy ranges around prior day’s high/low. Avoid chasing moves immediately after major US data or during the post-rollover liquidity dip, as spreads and slippage can spike.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"20:45-21:30",
"21:00-22:00",
"12:25-13:15",
"18:55-19:30"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4375
}
rendered prompt
system
You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).
user
Instrument: XAUUSD Timeframe: D1 Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-15T21:00:00Z Generated: 2026-09-16T22:00:24.793Z
Just-closed bar: open 4294.4 high 4367.2 low 4235.27 close 4264.1 tick_volume 378548 spread 18
Recent D1 history, oldest first (60 bars):
time (UTC) open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-06-24 21:00 O 4005.36 H 4044.18 L 3963.31 C 4026.64 V 275701
2026-06-25 21:00 O 4029.23 H 4096.02 L 3983.08 C 4088.85 V 248552
2026-06-28 21:00 O 4079.46 H 4086.08 L 4000.19 C 4016.32 V 225932
2026-06-29 21:00 O 4019.38 H 4063.48 L 3943.51 C 4007.22 V 227366
2026-06-30 21:00 O 4011.85 H 4115.68 L 3960.21 C 4031.43 V 232098
2026-07-01 21:00 O 4034.1 H 4143.97 L 4030.76 C 4123.96 V 251853
2026-07-02 21:00 O 4126.02 H 4195.38 L 4121.21 C 4175.58 V 147918
2026-07-05 21:00 O 4177.93 H 4202.79 L 4128.51 C 4164.18 V 207058
2026-07-06 21:00 O 4164.98 H 4180.38 L 4092.32 C 4106.68 V 220018
2026-07-07 21:00 O 4097.25 H 4133.95 L 4021.79 C 4077.4 V 280587
2026-07-08 21:00 O 4075.97 H 4138.02 L 4054.28 C 4123.91 V 213639
2026-07-09 21:00 O 4126.02 H 4134.78 L 4072.52 C 4119.72 V 185231
2026-07-12 21:00 O 4097.97 H 4103.47 L 3986.5 C 4001.86 V 254274
2026-07-13 21:00 O 4002.56 H 4103.36 L 3983.66 C 4052.71 V 242477
2026-07-14 21:00 O 4052.91 H 4081.24 L 4017.41 C 4059.96 V 222314
2026-07-15 21:00 O 4066.11 H 4066.73 L 3969.42 C 3976.43 V 237943
2026-07-16 21:00 O 3977.01 H 4023.72 L 3959.66 C 4017.57 V 251455
2026-07-19 21:00 O 4001.75 H 4040.73 L 3982.73 C 4008.62 V 222902
2026-07-20 21:00 O 4009.67 H 4087.25 L 3999.79 C 4077.85 V 198234
2026-07-21 21:00 O 4080.06 H 4166.02 L 4076.8 C 4130 V 219993
2026-07-22 21:00 O 4123.78 H 4140.85 L 4040.16 C 4049.1 V 240097
2026-07-23 21:00 O 4048.89 H 4082.06 L 4022.02 C 4052.79 V 193278
2026-07-26 21:00 O 4092.04 H 4116.15 L 4065.38 C 4076.62 V 213325
2026-07-27 21:00 O 4080.21 H 4082.31 L 4011.55 C 4028.73 V 217079
2026-07-28 21:00 O 4029.34 H 4116.37 L 3995.97 C 4066.27 V 256294
2026-07-29 21:00 O 4065.89 H 4120.38 L 4028.46 C 4102.93 V 266784
2026-07-30 21:00 O 4105.64 H 4111.69 L 4021.05 C 4044.18 V 204578
2026-08-02 21:00 O 4073.66 H 4079.81 L 4019.11 C 4054.93 V 199795
2026-08-03 21:00 O 4054.12 H 4106.35 L 4042.6 C 4077.79 V 190723
2026-08-04 21:00 O 4078.7 H 4267.84 L 4065.33 C 4246.34 V 236176
2026-08-05 21:00 O 4247.71 H 4304.24 L 4223.43 C 4240.28 V 236117
2026-08-06 21:00 O 4240.61 H 4371.77 L 4229.7 C 4342.15 V 249163
2026-08-09 21:00 O 4348.59 H 4395.19 L 4313.46 C 4389.25 V 218198
2026-08-10 21:00 O 4389.88 H 4435.09 L 4356.67 C 4368.02 V 228671
2026-08-11 21:00 O 4372.25 H 4441.37 L 4362.56 C 4408.88 V 221477
2026-08-12 21:00 O 4411.3 H 4449.75 L 4343.74 C 4350.41 V 231640
2026-08-13 21:00 O 4353.09 H 4397.01 L 4310.93 C 4375.84 V 203176
2026-08-16 21:00 O 4379.99 H 4428.85 L 4367.2 C 4416.42 V 208360
2026-08-17 21:00 O 4418.04 H 4436.21 L 4329.16 C 4334.75 V 218094
2026-08-18 21:00 O 4336.07 H 4524.25 L 4324.52 C 4522.94 V 258666
2026-08-19 21:00 O 4521.98 H 4540.88 L 4450.66 C 4518.95 V 256550
2026-08-20 21:00 O 4518.65 H 4632.2 L 4508.31 C 4604.1 V 247590
2026-08-23 21:00 O 4623.74 H 4680.87 L 4594.38 C 4652.53 V 280520
2026-08-24 21:00 O 4654.13 H 4696.72 L 4605.34 C 4658.73 V 254818
2026-08-25 21:00 O 4657.34 H 4673.67 L 4582.89 C 4594.09 V 230819
2026-08-26 21:00 O 4596.48 H 4643.07 L 4565.16 C 4600.56 V 236758
2026-08-27 21:00 O 4602.94 H 4632.05 L 4445.48 C 4456.35 V 264940
2026-08-30 21:00 O 4437.49 H 4472.02 L 4396.53 C 4448.44 V 249062
2026-08-31 21:00 O 4451.3 H 4461.5 L 4322.75 C 4328.78 V 261539
2026-09-01 21:00 O 4333.29 H 4397.64 L 4282.59 C 4387.53 V 252471
2026-09-02 21:00 O 4390.5 H 4510.73 L 4381.19 C 4473.31 V 290779
2026-09-03 21:00 O 4474.61 H 4490.77 L 4365.54 C 4430.1 V 343487
2026-09-06 21:00 O 4423.21 H 4435.18 L 4381.17 C 4406.34 V 229202
2026-09-07 21:00 O 4409.56 H 4442.93 L 4345.55 C 4355.54 V 396478
2026-09-08 21:00 O 4356 H 4434.08 L 4341.36 C 4400.85 V 343402
2026-09-09 21:00 O 4404.23 H 4434.73 L 4313.82 C 4316.55 V 434668
2026-09-10 21:00 O 4319.76 H 4402.46 L 4290.11 C 4349 V 424830
2026-09-13 21:00 O 4337 H 4355.32 L 4253.73 C 4298.58 V 399455
2026-09-14 21:00 O 4301.81 H 4317.38 L 4261.34 C 4293.32 V 337304
2026-09-15 21:00 O 4294.4 H 4367.2 L 4235.27 C 4264.1 V 378548
Recent news that may matter for XAUUSD (12 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-16 19:00 UTC] Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years. Plus, what's moving Starbucks and GE Vernova (CNBC)
Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.
- [2026-09-16 13:19 UTC] Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday (CNBC)
It's Fed decision day.
- [2026-09-16 08:58 UTC] Yield on 10-year Treasury hovers above 5% as investors await Fed decision (CNBC)
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates on Wednesday.
- [2026-09-16 20:11 UTC] Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says - Reuters (Reuters)
Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says Reuters
- [2026-09-16 19:12 UTC] Boeing CEO: 737 Max production taking 'a little bit longer' to stabilize than expected (CNBC)
Boeing CEO said stabilizing its 737 Max production is taking longer than expected to stabilize.
- [2026-09-16 18:29 UTC] US House expected to pass Russia sanctions bill backed by late Senator Graham - Reuters (Reuters)
US House expected to pass Russia sanctions bill backed by late Senator Graham Reuters
- [2026-09-16 18:04 UTC] Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing - reuters.com (Reuters)
Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing reuters.com
- [2026-09-16 17:21 UTC] Lagging sector looks poised for a rebound. Here's how Mike Khouw is trading it (CNBC)
Quietly, the communications sector has started to claw back some of the year's underperformance.
- [2026-09-16 16:55 UTC] American Airlines says 30% of seats drive half of revenue as premium cabin rush heats up (CNBC)
American says a minority of its seats now accounts for half of its revenue.
- [2026-09-16 16:38 UTC] Houthi blitz leaves Saudi Arabia exposed, Iran emboldened - Reuters (Reuters)
Houthi blitz leaves Saudi Arabia exposed, Iran emboldened Reuters
- [2026-09-16 16:37 UTC] We're significantly trimming a stock that has not gone to plan (CNBC)
We're selling half of our remaining position and downgrading the name to our sell-on-further-strength 3 rating.
- [2026-09-16 16:04 UTC] Jim Cramer says this enterprise software stock is 'way too cheap' (CNBC)
The Investing Club holds its "Morning Meeting" every weekday at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Task: assess the state of XAUUSD after this D1 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.
Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
"bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
"risks": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
"drivers": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
"confidence": "integer 0-100",
"key_levels": {
"support": [
"number, nearest first"
],
"resistance": [
"number, nearest first"
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "one or two sentences",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
],
"preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
"volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
},
"invalidation_level": "number or null"
}news context
{
"items": [
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-whats-moving-starbucks-and-ge-vernova.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T19:00:14.000Z",
"headline": "Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years. Plus, what's moving Starbucks and GE Vernova"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/jim-cramers-top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-stock-market-wednesday.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "It's Fed decision day.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T13:19:14.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/treasury-yield-bond-market-fed-decision.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates on Wednesday.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T08:58:16.000Z",
"headline": "Yield on 10-year Treasury hovers above 5% as investors await Fed decision"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxNUktRelVFeVlmRUh4NjlTNU5vVFNRZDBsaE9Wd2YybUlQYTNSY0NONXhUMjJEcTJzSnRjaWZNM2pNN0E4YnVyTVdLZVhOX2FmM0l1MXU2SU01NXR2aWw3bC1IY2lZM3BZbzZQQ01kN3loX09KU2x5dTd4RXl6cXU0TUd5eVppY3NSbXpibXBnRmxyeHJyUUtjME5FU2tBaHZyMDB4RXgyQ3E0dnh5X1lZY2oxOWpqQTdCQlJiZFZtYw?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T20:11:13.000Z",
"headline": "Israel, Morocco agree to upgrade diplomatic ties, Israeli government says - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/boeing-ceo-737-max-production.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Boeing CEO said stabilizing its 737 Max production is taking longer than expected to stabilize.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T19:12:52.000Z",
"headline": "Boeing CEO: 737 Max production taking 'a little bit longer' to stabilize than expected"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxQdGtKVXRwQXN1c3J1bnpHcXNvRzJEbE9DVEVqV3JOQWttNmNhbHR3ekdVNWhKY1VUSHVuUmZvLXJILXNXRWI1bWhpSnJNV1BqUGhESUl0dGFpUUJDVmtvTmZpeV9ZR3F3bUhJZGFfNllUdENsemJHd0xubFBzUy0yanFES0xxX0FPc1p4UHpNQnh6VU1NSmhwOHp1ZHdka0ItUGlKN0NlcE1Id2J1RjVpcUVZLVZlcFZ6bnd1R0FMVQ?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "US House expected to pass Russia sanctions bill backed by late Senator Graham Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T18:29:12.000Z",
"headline": "US House expected to pass Russia sanctions bill backed by late Senator Graham - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNa0FZY0J4cFN1dGZjZEsxUXc5aVlrd2ZJdHF5LWtEcWU2bnJ6aFZ4X1I5WHhRQ3pfZUNfVzJUYlEzbW9lSTdINmtnVFYyUXNBZW5LcXlYQS0zVUNlTllVTUhkR29xaWFhZFlsSTgzU1p5Z3FTSzJtMEpka0lHS0VoZHltRXMxME40Zldtb0xOcWxEekxIOGN5WG5vV2I5NHpZbGd6X21kTzMzT3hnWjVLUDZFejNYeEgzcEJnRFFuQlN5UQ?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing reuters.com",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T18:04:31.000Z",
"headline": "Yemen offensive elevates enigmatic Houthi commander's standing - reuters.com"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/lagging-sector-looks-poised-for-a-rebound-heres-how-mike-khouw-is-trading-it.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Quietly, the communications sector has started to claw back some of the year's underperformance.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T17:21:49.000Z",
"headline": "Lagging sector looks poised for a rebound. Here's how Mike Khouw is trading it"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/american-airlines-ceo-first-class-seats.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "American says a minority of its seats now accounts for half of its revenue.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T16:55:44.000Z",
"headline": "American Airlines says 30% of seats drive half of revenue as premium cabin rush heats up"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxNU210dG1ONGRhN0FKOXF3WUpTLVowR3hJTGlsMVA2LVUtXzlacGVGbE5Hd3VLYktLOEgzYXdBZ3llMzFBdW1RMGJJaUxjRWJHSHRNZmh5T3l5RW9qTDE3Y1NRSFhnVjlEQXR0QzY4Ym0zdUc4MGxNdkZMT2NYVVU1eEtxcUtWYS0tdHpCcmJVXzdXRDZFQU1PeHVuc3I2bnUzb3NBR2pSN1V1YmhMSFFz?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Houthi blitz leaves Saudi Arabia exposed, Iran emboldened Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T16:38:32.000Z",
"headline": "Houthi blitz leaves Saudi Arabia exposed, Iran emboldened - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/were-significantly-trimming-a-stock-that-has-not-gone-to-plan.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "We're selling half of our remaining position and downgrading the name to our sell-on-further-strength 3 rating.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T16:37:22.000Z",
"headline": "We're significantly trimming a stock that has not gone to plan"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/jim-cramer-says-this-enterprise-software-stock-is-way-too-cheap.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "The Investing Club holds its \"Morning Meeting\" every weekday at 10:20 a.m. ET.",
"datetime": "2026-09-16T16:04:44.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer says this enterprise software stock is 'way too cheap'"
}
],
"fetched": 100,
"category": "general"
}Trigger context
{
"trigger": {
"low": 4235.27,
"high": 4367.2,
"open": 4294.4,
"time": 1789506000,
"close": 4264.1,
"source": "ea:797a99618d44",
"spread": 18,
"symbol": "XAUUSD",
"bar_time": "2026-09-15T21:00:00Z",
"timeframe": "D1",
"real_volume": 0,
"tick_volume": 378548
}
}