Run #4
- model
- GPT-5.1
- workflow
- large-tf-analysis (large_tf_signal_analysis)
- started
- 2026-09-10 22:00:24Z
- finished
- 2026-09-10 22:00:33Z
- tokens in / out
- 1413 / 506
- cost
- $0.0068
- dedupe key
- XAUUSD:D1:2026-09-09T21:00:00Z
- artifact
- analysis/large_tf_signal_analysis/XAUUSD/D1/2026-09-09T21:00:00Z.json
Result
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East can trigger sudden safe-haven inflows into gold, squeezing shorts",
"Upcoming U.S. inflation data and rate expectations could reverse the current dollar/yield strength",
"Very wide absolute price levels imply potential data or feed anomalies; technical signals may be less reliable",
"High intraday volatility after the large down bar can cause sharp two-way spikes around key levels"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Large impulsive down day after failing to hold above the recent 4430s area suggests profit-taking and renewed dollar strength",
"Rising U.S. yields ahead of key inflation data typically pressure gold on the rates channel",
"ECB hike and global tightening bias support higher real yields, structurally negative for gold in the short run",
"Ongoing Iran-related and Red Sea tensions provide a competing safe-haven bid that can cap downside follow-through"
],
"summary": "The latest daily bar shows a strong bearish continuation with a close near the session low, pointing to downside pressure into the next H4/D1 window. However, macro and geopolitical risks keep the environment headline‑driven and volatile, so clean trend follow‑through is not guaranteed. Expect responsive flows near nearby supports with risk of sharp squeezes if data or news flips the rates narrative.",
"confidence": 64,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4310,
4275,
4220
],
"resistance": [
4355,
4405,
4435
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Bias is to fade bounces toward resistance for now, but only if price remains below the 4405–4435 band; be prepared for fast reversals around data headlines. Use the nearby intraday swing points rather than the daily extremes for tight scalps, as ranges are expanded.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"00:00-01:00",
"20:30-21:30",
"12:25-13:15"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4435
}Step 1 · analysis succeeded
- model
- GPT-5.1 openai / gpt-5.1
- template
- large_tf_signal_analysis v1
- tokens in / out
- 1413 / 506
- cost
- $0.0068
- latency
- 8547 ms
- logged
- 2026-09-10 22:00:33Z
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East can trigger sudden safe-haven inflows into gold, squeezing shorts",
"Upcoming U.S. inflation data and rate expectations could reverse the current dollar/yield strength",
"Very wide absolute price levels imply potential data or feed anomalies; technical signals may be less reliable",
"High intraday volatility after the large down bar can cause sharp two-way spikes around key levels"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Large impulsive down day after failing to hold above the recent 4430s area suggests profit-taking and renewed dollar strength",
"Rising U.S. yields ahead of key inflation data typically pressure gold on the rates channel",
"ECB hike and global tightening bias support higher real yields, structurally negative for gold in the short run",
"Ongoing Iran-related and Red Sea tensions provide a competing safe-haven bid that can cap downside follow-through"
],
"summary": "The latest daily bar shows a strong bearish continuation with a close near the session low, pointing to downside pressure into the next H4/D1 window. However, macro and geopolitical risks keep the environment headline‑driven and volatile, so clean trend follow‑through is not guaranteed. Expect responsive flows near nearby supports with risk of sharp squeezes if data or news flips the rates narrative.",
"confidence": 64,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4310,
4275,
4220
],
"resistance": [
4355,
4405,
4435
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Bias is to fade bounces toward resistance for now, but only if price remains below the 4405–4435 band; be prepared for fast reversals around data headlines. Use the nearby intraday swing points rather than the daily extremes for tight scalps, as ranges are expanded.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"00:00-01:00",
"20:30-21:30",
"12:25-13:15"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4435
}
rendered prompt
system
You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).
user
Instrument: XAUUSD Timeframe: D1 Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-09T21:00:00Z Generated: 2026-09-10T22:00:24.572Z
Just-closed bar: open 4404.23 high 4434.73 low 4313.82 close 4316.55 tick_volume 434668 spread 18
Recent D1 history, oldest first (4 bars):
time (UTC) open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-09-06 21:00 O 4423.21 H 4435.18 L 4381.17 C 4406.34 V 229202
2026-09-07 21:00 O 4409.56 H 4442.93 L 4345.55 C 4355.54 V 396478
2026-09-08 21:00 O 4356 H 4434.08 L 4341.36 C 4400.85 V 343402
2026-09-09 21:00 O 4404.23 H 4434.73 L 4313.82 C 4316.55 V 434668
Recent news that may matter for XAUUSD (12 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-10 15:18 UTC] ECB hikes rates as Iran war adds to inflation angst - Reuters (Reuters)
ECB hikes rates as Iran war adds to inflation angst Reuters
- [2026-09-10 10:44 UTC] Treasury yields move higher as investors await key wholesale inflation data (CNBC)
Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday as traders await the release of U.S. wholesale inflation data.
- [2026-09-10 08:41 UTC] 'Fear gauge' VIX is starting to attract hedges into historically volatile part of calendar (CNBC)
Big moves in Treasury yields over the past couple of months have led to a renewed focus on the CBOE Volatility Index and the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate.
- [2026-09-10 06:07 UTC] South African rand slips as dollar, oil outweigh mixed economic data - Reuters (Reuters)
South African rand slips as dollar, oil outweigh mixed economic data Reuters
- [2026-09-10 06:05 UTC] EXCLUSIVE: How a billion-dollar sanctions dodge kept Chinese goods flowing to Iran - Reuters (Reuters)
EXCLUSIVE: How a billion-dollar sanctions dodge kept Chinese goods flowing to Iran Reuters
- [2026-09-10 02:56 UTC] Gold edges higher on weaker dollar, US inflation data in focus - Reuters (Reuters)
Gold edges higher on weaker dollar, US inflation data in focus Reuters
- [2026-09-10 21:23 UTC] Yemen's Houthis close in on Bab el-Mandeb Strait in new threat to shipping - Reuters (Reuters)
Yemen's Houthis close in on Bab el-Mandeb Strait in new threat to shipping Reuters
- [2026-09-10 19:30 UTC] US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East - Reuters (Reuters)
US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East Reuters
- [2026-09-10 19:26 UTC] Jim Cramer's least-favorite tech stock gets a new analyst endorsement — our take (CNBC)
Analysts at Piper called Broadcom the "ASIC compute king" in a new note to clients.
- [2026-09-10 19:08 UTC] Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings - Reuters (Reuters)
Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings Reuters
- [2026-09-10 18:46 UTC] Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Iran, Ukraine - Reuters (Reuters)
Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Iran, Ukraine Reuters
- [2026-09-10 18:20 UTC] Here’s a rapid-fire update on our 33-stock portfolio, including Cramer’s 6 favorites to buy (CNBC)
Jim's current faves include three tech names and a bank stock.
Task: assess the state of XAUUSD after this D1 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.
Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
"bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
"risks": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
"drivers": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
"confidence": "integer 0-100",
"key_levels": {
"support": [
"number, nearest first"
],
"resistance": [
"number, nearest first"
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "one or two sentences",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
],
"preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
"volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
},
"invalidation_level": "number or null"
}news context
{
"items": [
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxOY0VWcFhfaVg1bHdEUzlqVTlvNlREOFdweDVteVNCVWFCY29MVFJMRVdWeEJuSDAxWlY3cjU4ZGlxdkNremFBTThYSVQ5cFNBaTliSGMwbmJRR0NkNkwtUUhORFFwZ3gwLXJSZnNOR1ZfVDlEanZ5TzFNZ3FsX1hobnkyODI3cE96RkI2S3htVk5LRWNWbmF1c1FvNA?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": true,
"summary": "ECB hikes rates as Iran war adds to inflation angst Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T15:18:26.000Z",
"headline": "ECB hikes rates as Iran war adds to inflation angst - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/us-treasurys-bonds-yield.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday as traders await the release of U.S. wholesale inflation data.",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T10:44:07.000Z",
"headline": "Treasury yields move higher as investors await key wholesale inflation data"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/fear-gauge-vix-hedges-volatility-stocks.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Big moves in Treasury yields over the past couple of months have led to a renewed focus on the CBOE Volatility Index and the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate.",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T08:41:36.000Z",
"headline": "'Fear gauge' VIX is starting to attract hedges into historically volatile part of calendar"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxOMXdLYWZCSXR0akZDREdGclNTWjhHbkhDUE5wR3M2c0NJeXFDdHNDZDlBLXBOMEoteDJUZnZEOVhHZ00ySGFBYU05SDdkRWVaN0NMZF9VUzFXWEVaWnVETDkyT1FWX3Jnb3pyQkhocS1hX0tKZ3NMN0ViYTJIZHlJNzMyejBVQXEtdWM5eHp1d2FqOHlUelpYbG1sOGZIbDRiNEtDcw?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": true,
"summary": "South African rand slips as dollar, oil outweigh mixed economic data Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T06:07:00.000Z",
"headline": "South African rand slips as dollar, oil outweigh mixed economic data - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPQXdBWlltZS1pUU8wZnFqc21wUDExNGZub0prbEtxYTNwS2J3UU91eTQ4aXZTUGNwWjdGZGxVZUNiY2dHbXVNbl9tNE4zSlVqVDJaZFlmMkZ6Slo3RndJczlqMTlsYlVGOEEteGNreDFjR0JabWhJaTNCTHNtUUozWDFVSm56QldwaXFjbnBQZWlxdGtsVFdmcDFDTHNjMzBaN2NkNlNzUGV0MXhZR3hBdmFUMV9LLU9ZYWxBTW5n?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": true,
"summary": "EXCLUSIVE: How a billion-dollar sanctions dodge kept Chinese goods flowing to Iran Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T06:05:00.000Z",
"headline": "EXCLUSIVE: How a billion-dollar sanctions dodge kept Chinese goods flowing to Iran - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQU00zRjlwdjRLNzNsRDluVS1Rc0hCVmhNSTc0TThXMVUtMVgyYU1Mc3FVY1p4YlVIX0p2NzhYbEFCSkVUMEhHR2MtTlFRUHZlbXVGNkxINUVSc1FZNVB5S2hGOXdIUzMydEhHSllEcVVqbWM0VHlOajEzeHBQMlY4UW5nUnRNMm5NS1lvR3RYN2E5M1dIV3NMd3VuZDJOZDg2U0cxa1JR?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Gold edges higher on weaker dollar, US inflation data in focus Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T02:56:00.000Z",
"headline": "Gold edges higher on weaker dollar, US inflation data in focus - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNSUNHSEc4V2xmVVpPcmx6cE1GaF85MVB3Tnl5ZzdyWVBlYy0zcnNzOTQ1R2ZyNFdzbmp6c2xodVlOallDQTAyeUFodEUwa0dkOFFCN3ZIcmg0V3Iyc0NiUGczTklDSzhUOGNkUUd5ZWlRME5LRGhBdHFvSDdVUm9WdjZacC0zcFdkM0xZY09LUHFDR3lua1ZXMW1GN0NxT21CTFRYNkFOVGRNMzFsTjJXS1hnejFfVTdUZHBvMEJoMmJGU2xLQnc?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Yemen's Houthis close in on Bab el-Mandeb Strait in new threat to shipping Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T21:23:11.000Z",
"headline": "Yemen's Houthis close in on Bab el-Mandeb Strait in new threat to shipping - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQQ2p0aERlM3VXMFFWMkg4ZUtIejRIWDdUNUtlbnkwLWlyTWFBNGMyUzBUVnczaGdsNGIxcjJNT3BIekZrQXhOVEdwY0ZaQ0RZVmE2SW5RWTdLN1F6M01vbXZyMXF1OE9XbHphN1dnRWxwWmNyV2V2WDg3dGVOTDR3TXd5dDFwcEl6X2pxd05LRmc4d2NkUzFMS3piTFg1eWppdW8xNWNHd0VYZ3EwOFM4a19SMmNkeE9TZlE?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T19:30:16.000Z",
"headline": "US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/cramers-least-favorite-tech-stock-gets-a-new-bullish-analyst-endorsement.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Analysts at Piper called Broadcom the \"ASIC compute king\" in a new note to clients.",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T19:26:20.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer's least-favorite tech stock gets a new analyst endorsement — our take"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxObTBDWU8wZ01YSnowWGVWbUFZQ0ozZlZaSzRYWFhuaUdxajB6T05JS29iX180anZIUWdKUUE4SjZGdzN1cmc3Tmx2bjMtT0Z4TE55bGQ1NjYxUThlU21OTnZvbVJxeTNXVjZZcXJrdG1pQzRMTnVqeGUzcVY5aGluV1V0YTh0UlN1eVBScUZTajd4S0tCaFNEWGltbE9jRHk5eS1rTFVkRHg?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T19:08:44.000Z",
"headline": "Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPdVZHZ3p3WFkzek96eVB5elNZRXdVTWoxN1ZHM0kxMlpDN1hZN3llRFBKcjRrRlY1Y1I2czhYdzBRSDcwUE91cldXdWtsTklIZk5vRlZXMkEzVDgtSy1qdElvV2N1TUgtRGhyQkV4NlRSenhVanVvU3lkWXZPdkt4ODM3cFBpbV9vdWhMMlZTSVczN0FkdmlTdm14cVc?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Iran, Ukraine Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T18:46:13.000Z",
"headline": "Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Iran, Ukraine - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/a-rapid-fire-update-on-our-33-stock-portfolio-including-6-to-buy-now.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Jim's current faves include three tech names and a bank stock.",
"datetime": "2026-09-10T18:20:12.000Z",
"headline": "Here’s a rapid-fire update on our 33-stock portfolio, including Cramer’s 6 favorites to buy"
}
],
"fetched": 100,
"category": "general"
}Trigger context
{
"trigger": {
"low": 4313.82,
"high": 4434.73,
"open": 4404.23,
"time": 1788987600,
"close": 4316.55,
"source": "ea:797a99618d44",
"spread": 18,
"symbol": "XAUUSD",
"bar_time": "2026-09-09T21:00:00Z",
"timeframe": "D1",
"real_volume": 0,
"tick_volume": 434668
}
}