Run #38
- model
- GPT-5.1
- workflow
- large-tf-analysis (large_tf_signal_analysis)
- started
- 2026-09-15 09:00:07Z
- finished
- 2026-09-15 09:00:21Z
- tokens in / out
- 3886 / 571
- cost
- $0.0106
- dedupe key
- XAUUSD:H4:2026-09-15T05:00:00Z
- artifact
- analysis/large_tf_signal_analysis/XAUUSD/H4/2026-09-15T05:00:00Z.json
Result
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Oversold intraday conditions after a sharp $40+ drop could trigger a mean-reversion bounce",
"Geopolitical Middle East headlines can spark sudden safe-haven spikes against the yield-driven downtrend",
"Positioning into a highly-expected Fed hike can cause whipsaws around US data or Fed commentary",
"Very elevated yields may already be partly priced in, limiting further downside follow-through intraday"
],
"regime": "trending_down",
"drivers": [
"US 10-year yields at highest levels since 2007 increase the opportunity cost of holding gold",
"Market pricing in an imminent Fed hike and possibly another later in the year, pressuring bullion",
"Recent H4 structure has broken the prior 4300–4350 balance to the downside with expanding range and volume",
"Risk-off flows appear more focused on bonds and dollar strength than on gold as a safe haven despite Middle East tensions"
],
"summary": "Gold has broken down from the recent 4300–4350 consolidation, with the last H4 candle closing near its low and extending the short-term downtrend. Yield and Fed expectations are in control, so rallies into nearby resistance are vulnerable to selling, though an oversold bounce is possible intraday. Key for bears is to hold price below ~4305–4315; a sustained reclaim of that zone would neutralize the immediate downside bias.",
"confidence": 71,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4261,
4253.7,
4240,
4225
],
"resistance": [
4285,
4300,
4315,
4330,
4360
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Intraday bias favors selling bounces toward 4285–4315 while the market holds below 4315, but be prepared for sharp mean-reversion moves given the strong prior leg down. Focus on trading around clearly defined intrabar levels with tight risk control and avoid chasing breaks late in the H4 candle.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"21:00-22:00",
"00:00-01:00",
"12:00-14:30",
"18:00-19:00"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4318
}Step 1 · analysis succeeded
- model
- GPT-5.1 openai / gpt-5.1
- template
- large_tf_signal_analysis v1
- tokens in / out
- 3886 / 571
- cost
- $0.0106
- latency
- 12995 ms
- logged
- 2026-09-15 09:00:20Z
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Oversold intraday conditions after a sharp $40+ drop could trigger a mean-reversion bounce",
"Geopolitical Middle East headlines can spark sudden safe-haven spikes against the yield-driven downtrend",
"Positioning into a highly-expected Fed hike can cause whipsaws around US data or Fed commentary",
"Very elevated yields may already be partly priced in, limiting further downside follow-through intraday"
],
"regime": "trending_down",
"drivers": [
"US 10-year yields at highest levels since 2007 increase the opportunity cost of holding gold",
"Market pricing in an imminent Fed hike and possibly another later in the year, pressuring bullion",
"Recent H4 structure has broken the prior 4300–4350 balance to the downside with expanding range and volume",
"Risk-off flows appear more focused on bonds and dollar strength than on gold as a safe haven despite Middle East tensions"
],
"summary": "Gold has broken down from the recent 4300–4350 consolidation, with the last H4 candle closing near its low and extending the short-term downtrend. Yield and Fed expectations are in control, so rallies into nearby resistance are vulnerable to selling, though an oversold bounce is possible intraday. Key for bears is to hold price below ~4305–4315; a sustained reclaim of that zone would neutralize the immediate downside bias.",
"confidence": 71,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4261,
4253.7,
4240,
4225
],
"resistance": [
4285,
4300,
4315,
4330,
4360
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Intraday bias favors selling bounces toward 4285–4315 while the market holds below 4315, but be prepared for sharp mean-reversion moves given the strong prior leg down. Focus on trading around clearly defined intrabar levels with tight risk control and avoid chasing breaks late in the H4 candle.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"21:00-22:00",
"00:00-01:00",
"12:00-14:30",
"18:00-19:00"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4318
}
rendered prompt
system
You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).
user
Instrument: XAUUSD Timeframe: H4 Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-15T05:00:00Z Generated: 2026-09-15T09:00:07.411Z
Just-closed bar: open 4304.73 high 4307.65 low 4261.34 close 4262.48 tick_volume 62827 spread 18
Recent H4 history, oldest first (60 bars):
time (UTC) open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-09-01 09:00 O 4370.8 H 4387.14 L 4352 C 4356.27 V 48641
2026-09-01 13:00 O 4356.29 H 4375.53 L 4326.23 C 4351.3 V 63176
2026-09-01 17:00 O 4351.39 H 4351.95 L 4322.75 C 4328.78 V 46571
2026-09-01 21:00 O 4333.29 H 4335.68 L 4314.6 C 4315.87 V 21421
2026-09-02 01:00 O 4315.85 H 4326.65 L 4282.59 C 4307.22 V 42133
2026-09-02 05:00 O 4307.25 H 4331.57 L 4303.69 C 4312.83 V 45023
2026-09-02 09:00 O 4312.82 H 4344.37 L 4301.83 C 4331.45 V 45235
2026-09-02 13:00 O 4331.4 H 4397.64 L 4330.85 C 4368.23 V 59325
2026-09-02 17:00 O 4368.34 H 4391.47 L 4364.57 C 4387.53 V 39334
2026-09-02 21:00 O 4390.5 H 4397.81 L 4381.19 C 4395.38 V 17021
2026-09-03 01:00 O 4395.55 H 4438.35 L 4387.41 C 4437.4 V 38647
2026-09-03 05:00 O 4437.35 H 4443.5 L 4418.81 C 4434.91 V 45694
2026-09-03 09:00 O 4434.97 H 4495.16 L 4418.8 C 4493.42 V 53285
2026-09-03 13:00 O 4493.53 H 4510.73 L 4456.91 C 4486.2 V 99001
2026-09-03 17:00 O 4486.26 H 4494.62 L 4470.5 C 4473.31 V 37131
2026-09-03 21:00 O 4474.61 H 4487.1 L 4471.4 C 4486.37 V 25645
2026-09-04 01:00 O 4486.36 H 4487.14 L 4465.5 C 4473.76 V 53406
2026-09-04 05:00 O 4473.73 H 4490.77 L 4460.16 C 4477.8 V 55319
2026-09-04 09:00 O 4477.76 H 4479.2 L 4378.66 C 4393.89 V 59997
2026-09-04 13:00 O 4393.94 H 4448.93 L 4365.54 C 4436.36 V 102067
2026-09-04 17:00 O 4436.36 H 4440.37 L 4412.03 C 4430.1 V 47053
2026-09-06 21:00 O 4423.21 H 4435.18 L 4410.25 C 4412.64 V 29571
2026-09-07 01:00 O 4412.59 H 4419 L 4389.63 C 4398.01 V 59952
2026-09-07 05:00 O 4398.04 H 4423.89 L 4385.26 C 4411.04 V 57391
2026-09-07 09:00 O 4411.07 H 4413.74 L 4381.17 C 4396.79 V 38117
2026-09-07 13:00 O 4396.79 H 4419.57 L 4395.37 C 4414.46 V 40097
2026-09-07 17:00 O 4414.46 H 4415.03 L 4403.11 C 4406.34 V 4074
2026-09-07 21:00 O 4409.56 H 4430.13 L 4406.27 C 4426.16 V 38863
2026-09-08 01:00 O 4426.14 H 4442.93 L 4417.24 C 4436.1 V 68353
2026-09-08 05:00 O 4436.04 H 4437.8 L 4387.86 C 4394.19 V 74238
2026-09-08 09:00 O 4394.19 H 4411.71 L 4385.41 C 4411.45 V 63693
2026-09-08 13:00 O 4411.53 H 4412.86 L 4380.58 C 4393.54 V 87382
2026-09-08 17:00 O 4393.54 H 4403.66 L 4345.55 C 4355.54 V 63949
2026-09-08 21:00 O 4356 H 4365.58 L 4341.36 C 4364.74 V 32204
2026-09-09 01:00 O 4364.73 H 4384.4 L 4354.16 C 4381.58 V 59994
2026-09-09 05:00 O 4381.55 H 4412.75 L 4380.44 C 4400.61 V 51650
2026-09-09 09:00 O 4400.62 H 4415.37 L 4386.24 C 4400.13 V 55631
2026-09-09 13:00 O 4400.13 H 4434.08 L 4375.15 C 4409.56 V 96808
2026-09-09 17:00 O 4409.4 H 4421.51 L 4393.33 C 4400.85 V 47115
2026-09-09 21:00 O 4404.23 H 4406.49 L 4389.76 C 4401.12 V 33729
2026-09-10 01:00 O 4401.13 H 4420.91 L 4400.23 C 4408.46 V 71932
2026-09-10 05:00 O 4408.48 H 4434.73 L 4392.52 C 4394.92 V 65492
2026-09-10 09:00 O 4394.97 H 4400.19 L 4324.08 C 4340.07 V 83348
2026-09-10 13:00 O 4340.07 H 4376.24 L 4339.69 C 4364.04 V 108931
2026-09-10 17:00 O 4364.05 H 4367.95 L 4313.82 C 4316.55 V 71236
2026-09-10 21:00 O 4319.76 H 4334.03 L 4311.28 C 4332.06 V 36754
2026-09-11 01:00 O 4332.06 H 4340.4 L 4300.78 C 4331.74 V 79427
2026-09-11 05:00 O 4331.89 H 4360.86 L 4328.17 C 4346.97 V 70032
2026-09-11 09:00 O 4347.08 H 4390.03 L 4290.11 C 4388.61 V 70162
2026-09-11 13:00 O 4388.53 H 4402.46 L 4352.01 C 4361.73 V 110070
2026-09-11 17:00 O 4361.72 H 4370.41 L 4342.85 C 4349 V 58385
2026-09-13 21:00 O 4337 H 4347.49 L 4328.43 C 4338.59 V 39941
2026-09-14 01:00 O 4338.59 H 4355.32 L 4322.14 C 4329.47 V 68640
2026-09-14 05:00 O 4329.53 H 4338.6 L 4303.21 C 4306.63 V 66328
2026-09-14 09:00 O 4306.65 H 4311.7 L 4265.91 C 4271 V 69731
2026-09-14 13:00 O 4271.09 H 4317.67 L 4253.73 C 4315.74 V 99012
2026-09-14 17:00 O 4315.76 H 4316.46 L 4282.35 C 4298.58 V 55803
2026-09-14 21:00 O 4301.81 H 4302.62 L 4283.25 C 4293.07 V 28829
2026-09-15 01:00 O 4292.95 H 4317.38 L 4287.99 C 4304.8 V 50006
2026-09-15 05:00 O 4304.73 H 4307.65 L 4261.34 C 4262.48 V 62827
Recent news that may matter for XAUUSD (12 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-15 01:44 UTC] Bonds slump as US 10-year Treasury yields hit highest since 2007 - Reuters (Reuters)
Bonds slump as US 10-year Treasury yields hit highest since 2007 Reuters
- [2026-09-14 18:50 UTC] Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike (CNBC)
Traders were pricing in a better than 92% probability of a rate increase, as well as a more than 75% chance for another one in December.
- [2026-09-15 05:12 UTC] China's August oil throughput rises as fuel exports rebound amid Iran war - Reuters (Reuters)
China's August oil throughput rises as fuel exports rebound amid Iran war Reuters
- [2026-09-15 02:59 UTC] Hormuz traffic dwindles after Middle East attacks intensify - Reuters (Reuters)
Hormuz traffic dwindles after Middle East attacks intensify Reuters
- [2026-09-15 02:28 UTC] Saudi civil defence says danger has passed in six cities including Yanbu - Reuters (Reuters)
Saudi civil defence says danger has passed in six cities including Yanbu Reuters
- [2026-09-15 00:04 UTC] Houthis strike Saudi targets anew as talks over Strait of Hormuz stall - Reuters (Reuters)
Houthis strike Saudi targets anew as talks over Strait of Hormuz stall Reuters
- [2026-09-14 21:12 UTC] US imposes fresh sanctions on Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran ties - Reuters (Reuters)
US imposes fresh sanctions on Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran ties Reuters
- [2026-09-14 19:34 UTC] Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest - Reuters (Reuters)
Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest Reuters
- [2026-09-14 19:27 UTC] Not all tech is under fire in Monday's selling, while investors seek refuge in defensive stocks (CNBC)
Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.
- [2026-09-14 18:43 UTC] Is a 'SaaSpocalypse'-like sell-off coming for AI hardware stocks? Not so fast (CNBC)
Anthropic's safety warning is crushing data center stocks, but demand for compute still outstrips supply.
- [2026-09-14 17:16 UTC] As the oil surge continues, trader Mike Khouw sees more upside in this surging name (CNBC)
Michael Khouw breaks down how he's trading this energy name.
- [2026-09-14 16:11 UTC] Jim Cramer on why 'sitting on your hands' is worth it in this oversold market (CNBC)
The Investing Club holds its "Morning Meeting" every weekday at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Task: assess the state of XAUUSD after this H4 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.
Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
"bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
"risks": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
"drivers": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
"confidence": "integer 0-100",
"key_levels": {
"support": [
"number, nearest first"
],
"resistance": [
"number, nearest first"
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "one or two sentences",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
],
"preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
"volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
},
"invalidation_level": "number or null"
}news context
{
"items": [
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNa2swZ0ZXMUlmM25iamJCQWM5NWV1OG1yUHA0MWZwVkVyempxRGlyWGdXeDRuN25IYXdGb1J0a05HazdLSEtsZUNBNzlBWVA3cmtJVElCREdQeWx2amlXZnAxNHBFN1pZdnFVQ3NhYTBrbF9sMVhZM1Z2djlBUWdCcnkxNHJMMFJTOHJRSQ?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Bonds slump as US 10-year Treasury yields hit highest since 2007 Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-15T01:44:00.000Z",
"headline": "Bonds slump as US 10-year Treasury yields hit highest since 2007 - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/counting-the-votes-warsh-faces-tough-battle-as-fed-girds-for-expected-rate-hike.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Traders were pricing in a better than 92% probability of a rate increase, as well as a more than 75% chance for another one in December.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T18:50:32.000Z",
"headline": "Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNY3JiM0k1cEJ2SDhnVmNCbHJpeWlQWTJyWjVTUDlSX0dhM0I4MHAwOHltcFl6WW5RazFEWE0yYk1ja0hJcnE1cWpJYVZDZFp0cW1XeVpMeXFEc01veFFRRmNZeFhkSXBIeFphV0pYU3NGZjJNbzhfRlFrUk5Gc3puWVo2SllOZm5CM19xZ2dSWGV3aGpzdkdOTFpRVHVMNDRyMTB1WWJRSVFKbVV6YXRJNG9JZU1iMk9XRF9KMlFXUHdNZw?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "China's August oil throughput rises as fuel exports rebound amid Iran war Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-15T05:12:00.000Z",
"headline": "China's August oil throughput rises as fuel exports rebound amid Iran war - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOUTFPRnZDMlUxdmU3RmpseHVGS2laWk4tZU0ySUhOSUdDMGlfQ3loQTBQZktUdW96ck0yNlctUWxVV2NYSHpDclc2YnI4cVFISWZXbjdlM1BDSC1vejJmR2Qtc0NjTTlxLVpxRmZXck5nQU9US1JUalB2cTNZd1Z4Y1Q1QkVQUkEySXNqZUxYV1VWLV8wbVJYTU85X3U0bmk3SXFnNm1uMDQ4TkYwMjV3a3ItZw?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Hormuz traffic dwindles after Middle East attacks intensify Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-15T02:59:00.000Z",
"headline": "Hormuz traffic dwindles after Middle East attacks intensify - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxOTW44Q2VNT0ZLUS1feUlvTE90dTdwZ0NCVVhZY0RQeHBCRlItRGcwVldPaF9jTTdlcXJjSG1hdHNuN2FzdjZUMEtITnExdHZzYk5hR0RLdmZnRHZtRG1ubXdvZllyQXRzRjlpallqZlNJdWYzWHRLNXVtdk5lZDVMY3dnYWNaakJscW5fTVVzMkdrZEk4X253SFlwM05HblB5d21BSnh2UmpyMGxXeGRfbS0wRGZwN2Z0VXFvZTdTeHc?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Saudi civil defence says danger has passed in six cities including Yanbu Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-15T02:28:00.000Z",
"headline": "Saudi civil defence says danger has passed in six cities including Yanbu - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxOYjU2YnlvRExQZkwtRGlRN2ljVC10RTVQRGI4NUhLSEladjEzeGltZlcxWXByODRyZDlyM3pvWGdSYVBIZXctNVZvQ2ZOX09PZ2ZsN0pWU216ZFUwUDRRS0RjQXV2QVpMWkVXRFJiZGRaVVZENkFMN3hmUlBSWWxWVENnWnFYVEFHMGVMeWYyX2V0b09TMU9Bb2M4ZmZDWTU2YVVpYUFFOUJCcmVTeHhtdEVla2hMbGR1UGc?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Houthis strike Saudi targets anew as talks over Strait of Hormuz stall Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-15T00:04:00.000Z",
"headline": "Houthis strike Saudi targets anew as talks over Strait of Hormuz stall - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxPUV9iZ1hvNXptVGtUeEZ2X3Q1bkxtdm93Zm1neUNFdjlKM3Y2eElENzhEbHNpMFRRUXlGaWtUakU1al9wM3gtanR4R05saV9fWXVmNXlOWFUtQkpvRnJBbDdybE5CdVJtUmFRVDdLazdXRGljQUVVa0xpcUEzWHNpUEd5ZEhjOUlQMVMzY2hnamY1endIa0RZbFRlM3pKOUUx?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "US imposes fresh sanctions on Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran ties Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T21:12:07.000Z",
"headline": "US imposes fresh sanctions on Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran ties - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxNNm15SzdOekVDNV9rUTlPanJOckRvYlVjbzNtRU1BVFlWLV9DUVFBRHIxQWwzbzZJNHNuUWt4VXpyM0piZVZCTjRXelNxMUN3ZHB4WXNuZmdoeTJvZkI5Mmp5azBwVGxRNU1qdEEwelJ4c3lCUGxORXRGUFkxckEwZFkwMjRIR3pUbnZhQnllUXp6ZVN2QllZeEg5LUhuVm9tdDhHZmhlTEt5RV8temxtSTJqb0RYWENfckZLTVV1RmlzNjQwdjBj?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T19:34:10.000Z",
"headline": "Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/not-all-tech-is-under-fire-in-monday-selling-investors-seek-out-defensives.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T19:27:29.000Z",
"headline": "Not all tech is under fire in Monday's selling, while investors seek refuge in defensive stocks"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/is-a-saaspocalypse-like-sell-off-coming-for-ai-hardware-stocks-not-so-fast.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Anthropic's safety warning is crushing data center stocks, but demand for compute still outstrips supply.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T18:43:44.000Z",
"headline": "Is a 'SaaSpocalypse'-like sell-off coming for AI hardware stocks? Not so fast"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/as-the-oil-surge-continues-trader-mike-khouw-sees-more-upside-in-this-surging-name.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Michael Khouw breaks down how he's trading this energy name.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T17:16:23.000Z",
"headline": "As the oil surge continues, trader Mike Khouw sees more upside in this surging name"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/jim-cramer-on-why-sitting-on-your-hands-is-worth-it-in-this-oversold-market.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "The Investing Club holds its \"Morning Meeting\" every weekday at 10:20 a.m. ET.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T16:11:22.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer on why 'sitting on your hands' is worth it in this oversold market"
}
],
"fetched": 100,
"category": "general"
}Trigger context
{
"trigger": {
"low": 4261.34,
"high": 4307.65,
"open": 4304.73,
"time": 1789448400,
"close": 4262.48,
"source": "ea:797a99618d44",
"spread": 18,
"symbol": "XAUUSD",
"bar_time": "2026-09-15T05:00:00Z",
"timeframe": "H4",
"real_volume": 0,
"tick_volume": 62827
}
}