Run #35
- model
- GPT-5.1
- workflow
- large-tf-analysis (large_tf_signal_analysis)
- started
- 2026-09-14 22:00:16Z
- finished
- 2026-09-14 22:00:36Z
- tokens in / out
- 3897 / 649
- cost
- $0.0114
- dedupe key
- XAUUSD:D1:2026-09-13T21:00:00Z
- artifact
- analysis/large_tf_signal_analysis/XAUUSD/D1/2026-09-13T21:00:00Z.json
Result
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Price is approaching prior congestion around 4300-4350 where dip-buying has appeared before",
"Fed hike expectations are already elevated; any dovish surprise could trigger a sharp gold rebound",
"Geopolitical tensions (Iran, Yemen) can spark safe-haven flows against the current downside bias",
"Recent daily range and volume are already high, increasing risk of sharp mean-reversion spikes"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Rising Fed hike probabilities above 90% increase real-yield expectations and pressure gold lower",
"Follow-through selling from the failure above 4500 and subsequent lower highs across September",
"Break and daily close below the 9/10 swing low area, reinforcing a short-term bearish structure",
"Equity and AI-sector stress fostering USD strength and risk-off without clear gold safe-haven bids yet"
],
"summary": "The daily close shows continuation selling from the early-September lower high, with price pressing down through recent support around 4315–4350 and closing near the lower half of a wide range. The short-term technical structure favors further downside probes while Fed hike expectations remain elevated, but the market is entering a prior congestion band where bounces can be sharp. For the next H4–D1 window, selling rallies into resistance is favored over chasing fresh lows, with caution around major US data and Fed-related headlines.",
"confidence": 68,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4253.73,
4223.43,
4195.38,
4166.02,
4130,
4106.68,
4077.79,
4054.93,
4016.32,
3976.43,
3959.29
],
"resistance": [
4316.55,
4349,
4387.53,
4406.34,
4435.18,
4473.31,
4522.94,
4604.1,
4652.53,
4696.72
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Bias is to fade intraday bounces toward 4315–4350 with tight risk, targeting moves back toward 4255–4225 while volatility remains elevated. Be prepared to step aside if price reclaims and holds above the mid-4300s on strong volume or around major Fed-related headlines.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"00:00-01:00",
"12:25-13:15",
"17:45-19:15",
"20:55-21:15"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4388
}Step 1 · analysis succeeded
- model
- GPT-5.1 openai / gpt-5.1
- template
- large_tf_signal_analysis v1
- tokens in / out
- 3897 / 649
- cost
- $0.0114
- latency
- 19143 ms
- logged
- 2026-09-14 22:00:36Z
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Price is approaching prior congestion around 4300-4350 where dip-buying has appeared before",
"Fed hike expectations are already elevated; any dovish surprise could trigger a sharp gold rebound",
"Geopolitical tensions (Iran, Yemen) can spark safe-haven flows against the current downside bias",
"Recent daily range and volume are already high, increasing risk of sharp mean-reversion spikes"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"drivers": [
"Rising Fed hike probabilities above 90% increase real-yield expectations and pressure gold lower",
"Follow-through selling from the failure above 4500 and subsequent lower highs across September",
"Break and daily close below the 9/10 swing low area, reinforcing a short-term bearish structure",
"Equity and AI-sector stress fostering USD strength and risk-off without clear gold safe-haven bids yet"
],
"summary": "The daily close shows continuation selling from the early-September lower high, with price pressing down through recent support around 4315–4350 and closing near the lower half of a wide range. The short-term technical structure favors further downside probes while Fed hike expectations remain elevated, but the market is entering a prior congestion band where bounces can be sharp. For the next H4–D1 window, selling rallies into resistance is favored over chasing fresh lows, with caution around major US data and Fed-related headlines.",
"confidence": 68,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4253.73,
4223.43,
4195.38,
4166.02,
4130,
4106.68,
4077.79,
4054.93,
4016.32,
3976.43,
3959.29
],
"resistance": [
4316.55,
4349,
4387.53,
4406.34,
4435.18,
4473.31,
4522.94,
4604.1,
4652.53,
4696.72
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Bias is to fade intraday bounces toward 4315–4350 with tight risk, targeting moves back toward 4255–4225 while volatility remains elevated. Be prepared to step aside if price reclaims and holds above the mid-4300s on strong volume or around major Fed-related headlines.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"00:00-01:00",
"12:25-13:15",
"17:45-19:15",
"20:55-21:15"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4388
}
rendered prompt
system
You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).
user
Instrument: XAUUSD Timeframe: D1 Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-13T21:00:00Z Generated: 2026-09-14T22:00:17.441Z
Just-closed bar: open 4337 high 4355.32 low 4253.73 close 4298.58 tick_volume 399455 spread 18
Recent D1 history, oldest first (60 bars):
time (UTC) open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-06-22 21:00 O 4192.37 H 4198.25 L 4090.95 C 4109.67 V 251442
2026-06-23 21:00 O 4115.46 H 4116.34 L 3959.29 C 4001.06 V 299998
2026-06-24 21:00 O 4005.36 H 4044.18 L 3963.31 C 4026.64 V 275701
2026-06-25 21:00 O 4029.23 H 4096.02 L 3983.08 C 4088.85 V 248552
2026-06-28 21:00 O 4079.46 H 4086.08 L 4000.19 C 4016.32 V 225932
2026-06-29 21:00 O 4019.38 H 4063.48 L 3943.51 C 4007.22 V 227366
2026-06-30 21:00 O 4011.85 H 4115.68 L 3960.21 C 4031.43 V 232098
2026-07-01 21:00 O 4034.1 H 4143.97 L 4030.76 C 4123.96 V 251853
2026-07-02 21:00 O 4126.02 H 4195.38 L 4121.21 C 4175.58 V 147918
2026-07-05 21:00 O 4177.93 H 4202.79 L 4128.51 C 4164.18 V 207058
2026-07-06 21:00 O 4164.98 H 4180.38 L 4092.32 C 4106.68 V 220018
2026-07-07 21:00 O 4097.25 H 4133.95 L 4021.79 C 4077.4 V 280587
2026-07-08 21:00 O 4075.97 H 4138.02 L 4054.28 C 4123.91 V 213639
2026-07-09 21:00 O 4126.02 H 4134.78 L 4072.52 C 4119.72 V 185231
2026-07-12 21:00 O 4097.97 H 4103.47 L 3986.5 C 4001.86 V 254274
2026-07-13 21:00 O 4002.56 H 4103.36 L 3983.66 C 4052.71 V 242477
2026-07-14 21:00 O 4052.91 H 4081.24 L 4017.41 C 4059.96 V 222314
2026-07-15 21:00 O 4066.11 H 4066.73 L 3969.42 C 3976.43 V 237943
2026-07-16 21:00 O 3977.01 H 4023.72 L 3959.66 C 4017.57 V 251455
2026-07-19 21:00 O 4001.75 H 4040.73 L 3982.73 C 4008.62 V 222902
2026-07-20 21:00 O 4009.67 H 4087.25 L 3999.79 C 4077.85 V 198234
2026-07-21 21:00 O 4080.06 H 4166.02 L 4076.8 C 4130 V 219993
2026-07-22 21:00 O 4123.78 H 4140.85 L 4040.16 C 4049.1 V 240097
2026-07-23 21:00 O 4048.89 H 4082.06 L 4022.02 C 4052.79 V 193278
2026-07-26 21:00 O 4092.04 H 4116.15 L 4065.38 C 4076.62 V 213325
2026-07-27 21:00 O 4080.21 H 4082.31 L 4011.55 C 4028.73 V 217079
2026-07-28 21:00 O 4029.34 H 4116.37 L 3995.97 C 4066.27 V 256294
2026-07-29 21:00 O 4065.89 H 4120.38 L 4028.46 C 4102.93 V 266784
2026-07-30 21:00 O 4105.64 H 4111.69 L 4021.05 C 4044.18 V 204578
2026-08-02 21:00 O 4073.66 H 4079.81 L 4019.11 C 4054.93 V 199795
2026-08-03 21:00 O 4054.12 H 4106.35 L 4042.6 C 4077.79 V 190723
2026-08-04 21:00 O 4078.7 H 4267.84 L 4065.33 C 4246.34 V 236176
2026-08-05 21:00 O 4247.71 H 4304.24 L 4223.43 C 4240.28 V 236117
2026-08-06 21:00 O 4240.61 H 4371.77 L 4229.7 C 4342.15 V 249163
2026-08-09 21:00 O 4348.59 H 4395.19 L 4313.46 C 4389.25 V 218198
2026-08-10 21:00 O 4389.88 H 4435.09 L 4356.67 C 4368.02 V 228671
2026-08-11 21:00 O 4372.25 H 4441.37 L 4362.56 C 4408.88 V 221477
2026-08-12 21:00 O 4411.3 H 4449.75 L 4343.74 C 4350.41 V 231640
2026-08-13 21:00 O 4353.09 H 4397.01 L 4310.93 C 4375.84 V 203176
2026-08-16 21:00 O 4379.99 H 4428.85 L 4367.2 C 4416.42 V 208360
2026-08-17 21:00 O 4418.04 H 4436.21 L 4329.16 C 4334.75 V 218094
2026-08-18 21:00 O 4336.07 H 4524.25 L 4324.52 C 4522.94 V 258666
2026-08-19 21:00 O 4521.98 H 4540.88 L 4450.66 C 4518.95 V 256550
2026-08-20 21:00 O 4518.65 H 4632.2 L 4508.31 C 4604.1 V 247590
2026-08-23 21:00 O 4623.74 H 4680.87 L 4594.38 C 4652.53 V 280520
2026-08-24 21:00 O 4654.13 H 4696.72 L 4605.34 C 4658.73 V 254818
2026-08-25 21:00 O 4657.34 H 4673.67 L 4582.89 C 4594.09 V 230819
2026-08-26 21:00 O 4596.48 H 4643.07 L 4565.16 C 4600.56 V 236758
2026-08-27 21:00 O 4602.94 H 4632.05 L 4445.48 C 4456.35 V 264940
2026-08-30 21:00 O 4437.49 H 4472.02 L 4396.53 C 4448.44 V 249062
2026-08-31 21:00 O 4451.3 H 4461.5 L 4322.75 C 4328.78 V 261539
2026-09-01 21:00 O 4333.29 H 4397.64 L 4282.59 C 4387.53 V 252471
2026-09-02 21:00 O 4390.5 H 4510.73 L 4381.19 C 4473.31 V 290779
2026-09-03 21:00 O 4474.61 H 4490.77 L 4365.54 C 4430.1 V 343487
2026-09-06 21:00 O 4423.21 H 4435.18 L 4381.17 C 4406.34 V 229202
2026-09-07 21:00 O 4409.56 H 4442.93 L 4345.55 C 4355.54 V 396478
2026-09-08 21:00 O 4356 H 4434.08 L 4341.36 C 4400.85 V 343402
2026-09-09 21:00 O 4404.23 H 4434.73 L 4313.82 C 4316.55 V 434668
2026-09-10 21:00 O 4319.76 H 4402.46 L 4290.11 C 4349 V 424830
2026-09-13 21:00 O 4337 H 4355.32 L 4253.73 C 4298.58 V 399455
Recent news that may matter for XAUUSD (12 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-14 18:50 UTC] Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike (CNBC)
Traders were pricing in a better than 92% probability of a rate increase, as well as a more than 75% chance for another one in December.
- [2026-09-14 19:34 UTC] Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest - Reuters (Reuters)
Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest Reuters
- [2026-09-14 19:27 UTC] Not all tech is under fire in Monday's selling, while investors seek refuge in defensive stocks (CNBC)
Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.
- [2026-09-14 19:04 UTC] U.S. imposes Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB - Reuters (Reuters)
U.S. imposes Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB Reuters
- [2026-09-14 18:43 UTC] Is a 'SaaSpocalypse'-like sell-off coming for AI hardware stocks? Not so fast (CNBC)
Anthropic's safety warning is crushing data center stocks, but demand for compute still outstrips supply.
- [2026-09-14 17:16 UTC] As the oil surge continues, trader Mike Khouw sees more upside in this surging name (CNBC)
Michael Khouw breaks down how he's trading this energy name.
- [2026-09-14 16:11 UTC] Jim Cramer on why 'sitting on your hands' is worth it in this oversold market (CNBC)
The Investing Club holds its "Morning Meeting" every weekday at 10:20 a.m. ET.
- [2026-09-14 15:10 UTC] Senior Sunni cleric shot dead by unidentified gunmen in southeast Iran - Iranian state media - Reuters (Reuters)
Senior Sunni cleric shot dead by unidentified gunmen in southeast Iran - Iranian state media Reuters
- [2026-09-14 14:15 UTC] Etihad Airways says passenger numbers have rebounded from Iran war impact - Reuters (Reuters)
Etihad Airways says passenger numbers have rebounded from Iran war impact Reuters
- [2026-09-14 13:14 UTC] Here are our top 10 things to watch in the stock market Monday (CNBC)
AI semiconductor and infrastructure stocks are under heavy pressure ahead of Monday's open on Wall Street.
- [2026-09-14 13:00 UTC] Yemen's displaced long for loved ones, stability as Houthis advance - Reuters (Reuters)
Yemen's displaced long for loved ones, stability as Houthis advance Reuters
- [2026-09-14 12:59 UTC] AI stocks tumble on safety warnings. How to proceed — including 2 names on our shopping list (CNBC)
Jim Cramer offers a roadmap to navigate Monday's sell-off in AI stocks.
Task: assess the state of XAUUSD after this D1 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.
Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
"bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
"risks": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
"drivers": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
"confidence": "integer 0-100",
"key_levels": {
"support": [
"number, nearest first"
],
"resistance": [
"number, nearest first"
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "one or two sentences",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
],
"preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
"volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
},
"invalidation_level": "number or null"
}news context
{
"items": [
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/counting-the-votes-warsh-faces-tough-battle-as-fed-girds-for-expected-rate-hike.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Traders were pricing in a better than 92% probability of a rate increase, as well as a more than 75% chance for another one in December.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T18:50:32.000Z",
"headline": "Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxNNm15SzdOekVDNV9rUTlPanJOckRvYlVjbzNtRU1BVFlWLV9DUVFBRHIxQWwzbzZJNHNuUWt4VXpyM0piZVZCTjRXelNxMUN3ZHB4WXNuZmdoeTJvZkI5Mmp5azBwVGxRNU1qdEEwelJ4c3lCUGxORXRGUFkxckEwZFkwMjRIR3pUbnZhQnllUXp6ZVN2QllZeEg5LUhuVm9tdDhHZmhlTEt5RV8temxtSTJqb0RYWENfckZLTVV1RmlzNjQwdjBj?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T19:34:10.000Z",
"headline": "Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/not-all-tech-is-under-fire-in-monday-selling-investors-seek-out-defensives.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T19:27:29.000Z",
"headline": "Not all tech is under fire in Monday's selling, while investors seek refuge in defensive stocks"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxPUV9iZ1hvNXptVGtUeEZ2X3Q1bkxtdm93Zm1neUNFdjlKM3Y2eElENzhEbHNpMFRRUXlGaWtUakU1al9wM3gtanR4R05saV9fWXVmNXlOWFUtQkpvRnJBbDdybE5CdVJtUmFRVDdLazdXRGljQUVVa0xpcUEzWHNpUEd5ZEhjOUlQMVMzY2hnamY1endIa0RZbFRlM3pKOUUx?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "U.S. imposes Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T19:04:23.000Z",
"headline": "U.S. imposes Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/is-a-saaspocalypse-like-sell-off-coming-for-ai-hardware-stocks-not-so-fast.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Anthropic's safety warning is crushing data center stocks, but demand for compute still outstrips supply.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T18:43:44.000Z",
"headline": "Is a 'SaaSpocalypse'-like sell-off coming for AI hardware stocks? Not so fast"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/as-the-oil-surge-continues-trader-mike-khouw-sees-more-upside-in-this-surging-name.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Michael Khouw breaks down how he's trading this energy name.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T17:16:23.000Z",
"headline": "As the oil surge continues, trader Mike Khouw sees more upside in this surging name"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/jim-cramer-on-why-sitting-on-your-hands-is-worth-it-in-this-oversold-market.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "The Investing Club holds its \"Morning Meeting\" every weekday at 10:20 a.m. ET.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T16:11:22.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer on why 'sitting on your hands' is worth it in this oversold market"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPSXc0MkRtdlNRQUxNbjlDN3pHenA5cnEwdFBLU2ZPS3FBZDlpdXI4UDZ1WEZFQnZaemdZUVd6Q1JMOWNyc2s1QWZMU0YzWWVuSjl3V0hGS3BLTzFQWFZtalViVUZEcmduVElMUm0zU19oenVaUkdlRHAyUUF5TW9GelVoNlZyUktjV1FpQWNDbVRiOGdzNHg1X3JBNFRwZ0dDbGIyeWs2dWhVbERSVWJFYlhwLWtSSm00Z0ZIcDJtMXJ2U3dlY3pvZA?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Senior Sunni cleric shot dead by unidentified gunmen in southeast Iran - Iranian state media Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T15:10:56.000Z",
"headline": "Senior Sunni cleric shot dead by unidentified gunmen in southeast Iran - Iranian state media - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizwFBVV95cUxNYzdYYUtHSkVTSDY0dUZQVUZzdkY3WDVCZmgteEFHcXhrNGxmVmY5X1k4dGR3Z3o4ek9CdTNycWw3Z01jcHlRUFhJYllYLUd0V3JpRF9JVzY5eDh4WEFOVVBOSDd6RXhGa3lrSFFKVlBjV2cwMDhCdG5jcE1zN180Q0J1Y3lyVXNsWE9CaHBZWHlJZGtxdXNRWFlTWmVSR3RNV2dtR2RYV1JoU3VQcllHaUhIUEhMS2UwNzY4QzQxc2dwZjRQRFhtMkExRHI1Ukk?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Etihad Airways says passenger numbers have rebounded from Iran war impact Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T14:15:11.000Z",
"headline": "Etihad Airways says passenger numbers have rebounded from Iran war impact - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/here-are-our-top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-stock-market-monday.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "AI semiconductor and infrastructure stocks are under heavy pressure ahead of Monday's open on Wall Street.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T13:14:57.000Z",
"headline": "Here are our top 10 things to watch in the stock market Monday"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxONDRXdHd5bkV2YlhUcGtEVzN3UE1oRnBXa0RKYkNUeDZtTFBWZThSaFRydWYwUUI0S0M1QThnbG9yZDF1OERhN2pFNVViSXRMTE9fa2VnQTNLeDhNS1BkMHJoZHgtTnVHOHlTcVVSRVZYR1NsWmpGbUlsekUzVk9zZGRvTGI2al9xNkRPUGtfZFhXWS1DeHJ5a3RjbEFxZ0doOGZjV0ZoNnQzOTR6SGZGalFB?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Yemen's displaced long for loved ones, stability as Houthis advance Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T13:00:51.000Z",
"headline": "Yemen's displaced long for loved ones, stability as Houthis advance - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/ai-stocks-tumble-on-safety-warnings-how-to-proceed-including-2-names-on-our-shopping-list.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Jim Cramer offers a roadmap to navigate Monday's sell-off in AI stocks.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T12:59:41.000Z",
"headline": "AI stocks tumble on safety warnings. How to proceed — including 2 names on our shopping list"
}
],
"fetched": 100,
"category": "general"
}Trigger context
{
"trigger": {
"low": 4253.73,
"high": 4355.32,
"open": 4337,
"time": 1789333200,
"close": 4298.58,
"source": "ea:797a99618d44",
"spread": 18,
"symbol": "XAUUSD",
"bar_time": "2026-09-13T21:00:00Z",
"timeframe": "D1",
"real_volume": 0,
"tick_volume": 399455
}
}