Run #34
- model
- GPT-5.1
- workflow
- large-tf-analysis (large_tf_signal_analysis)
- started
- 2026-09-14 22:00:16Z
- finished
- 2026-09-14 22:00:37Z
- tokens in / out
- 3895 / 651
- cost
- $0.0114
- dedupe key
- XAUUSD:H4:2026-09-14T17:00:00Z
- artifact
- analysis/large_tf_signal_analysis/XAUUSD/H4/2026-09-14T17:00:00Z.json
Result
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Fed hike expectations over 90% are largely priced but any dovish surprise or pushback on December odds could trigger a sharp gold short-squeeze",
"Geopolitical flare-ups around Iran/Yemen can create sudden safe-haven spikes against the intraday trend",
"Price is approaching a prior congestion/support band from 4270-4320 where whipsaws and false breaks are common",
"Very elevated H4 tick volume on the latest downside bar may reflect capitulation rather than the start of a clean new leg lower"
],
"regime": "trending_down",
"drivers": [
"Growing market conviction of a Fed rate hike and likely follow-up in December weighing on non-yielding assets like gold",
"Recent sequence of lower highs and lower lows on H4 from the 4495 area confirming a short-term downtrend",
"Intraday risk-off in equities with rotation into defensives but not yet into gold suggests higher real-rate focus rather than classic fear bid",
"Oil strength and geopolitical tension provide a background bid but have not yet offset the rate-hike narrative for gold"
],
"summary": "Gold on H4 remains in a short-term downtrend, with the latest bar a high-volume selloff that extended the sequence of lower highs and lows. Price is testing into the 4300 area and just above the 4270–4280 support band, leaving room for further downside but also for sharp corrective bounces. As long as price stays below roughly 4335–4365, rallies are more likely to be sold into. A clear reclaim and hold above that band would neutralize the bearish bias for the next session.",
"confidence": 69,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4282.35,
4271,
4253.73,
4324.08,
4290.11
],
"resistance": [
4315.74,
4332.06,
4349,
4361.73,
4388.61,
4409.56,
4436.36,
4486.37
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Bias is for selling bounces within the 4315–4350 area while the downtrend structure holds, but be ready for sharp mean-reversion spikes off 4280–4270 intraday support. Expect stop-driven moves around key levels and avoid chasing extended candles; prefer fades of overextended swings back toward the short-term trend.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"21:00-22:00",
"00:00-01:00",
"12:00-14:30",
"17:30-18:30"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4365
}Step 1 · analysis succeeded
- model
- GPT-5.1 openai / gpt-5.1
- template
- large_tf_signal_analysis v1
- tokens in / out
- 3895 / 651
- cost
- $0.0114
- latency
- 18937 ms
- logged
- 2026-09-14 22:00:36Z
{
"bias": "bearish",
"risks": [
"Fed hike expectations over 90% are largely priced but any dovish surprise or pushback on December odds could trigger a sharp gold short-squeeze",
"Geopolitical flare-ups around Iran/Yemen can create sudden safe-haven spikes against the intraday trend",
"Price is approaching a prior congestion/support band from 4270-4320 where whipsaws and false breaks are common",
"Very elevated H4 tick volume on the latest downside bar may reflect capitulation rather than the start of a clean new leg lower"
],
"regime": "trending_down",
"drivers": [
"Growing market conviction of a Fed rate hike and likely follow-up in December weighing on non-yielding assets like gold",
"Recent sequence of lower highs and lower lows on H4 from the 4495 area confirming a short-term downtrend",
"Intraday risk-off in equities with rotation into defensives but not yet into gold suggests higher real-rate focus rather than classic fear bid",
"Oil strength and geopolitical tension provide a background bid but have not yet offset the rate-hike narrative for gold"
],
"summary": "Gold on H4 remains in a short-term downtrend, with the latest bar a high-volume selloff that extended the sequence of lower highs and lows. Price is testing into the 4300 area and just above the 4270–4280 support band, leaving room for further downside but also for sharp corrective bounces. As long as price stays below roughly 4335–4365, rallies are more likely to be sold into. A clear reclaim and hold above that band would neutralize the bearish bias for the next session.",
"confidence": 69,
"key_levels": {
"support": [
4282.35,
4271,
4253.73,
4324.08,
4290.11
],
"resistance": [
4315.74,
4332.06,
4349,
4361.73,
4388.61,
4409.56,
4436.36,
4486.37
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "Bias is for selling bounces within the 4315–4350 area while the downtrend structure holds, but be ready for sharp mean-reversion spikes off 4280–4270 intraday support. Expect stop-driven moves around key levels and avoid chasing extended candles; prefer fades of overextended swings back toward the short-term trend.",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"21:00-22:00",
"00:00-01:00",
"12:00-14:30",
"17:30-18:30"
],
"preferred_direction": "short",
"volatility_expectation": "high"
},
"invalidation_level": 4365
}
rendered prompt
system
You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).
user
Instrument: XAUUSD Timeframe: H4 Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-14T17:00:00Z Generated: 2026-09-14T22:00:17.851Z
Just-closed bar: open 4315.76 high 4316.46 low 4282.35 close 4298.58 tick_volume 55803 spread 18
Recent H4 history, oldest first (60 bars):
time (UTC) open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-08-31 21:00 O 4451.3 H 4461.5 L 4441.87 C 4453.67 V 19817
2026-09-01 01:00 O 4453.63 H 4456.86 L 4425.47 C 4426.59 V 36740
2026-09-01 05:00 O 4426.63 H 4445.99 L 4369.3 C 4370.82 V 46594
2026-09-01 09:00 O 4370.8 H 4387.14 L 4352 C 4356.27 V 48641
2026-09-01 13:00 O 4356.29 H 4375.53 L 4326.23 C 4351.3 V 63176
2026-09-01 17:00 O 4351.39 H 4351.95 L 4322.75 C 4328.78 V 46571
2026-09-01 21:00 O 4333.29 H 4335.68 L 4314.6 C 4315.87 V 21421
2026-09-02 01:00 O 4315.85 H 4326.65 L 4282.59 C 4307.22 V 42133
2026-09-02 05:00 O 4307.25 H 4331.57 L 4303.69 C 4312.83 V 45023
2026-09-02 09:00 O 4312.82 H 4344.37 L 4301.83 C 4331.45 V 45235
2026-09-02 13:00 O 4331.4 H 4397.64 L 4330.85 C 4368.23 V 59325
2026-09-02 17:00 O 4368.34 H 4391.47 L 4364.57 C 4387.53 V 39334
2026-09-02 21:00 O 4390.5 H 4397.81 L 4381.19 C 4395.38 V 17021
2026-09-03 01:00 O 4395.55 H 4438.35 L 4387.41 C 4437.4 V 38647
2026-09-03 05:00 O 4437.35 H 4443.5 L 4418.81 C 4434.91 V 45694
2026-09-03 09:00 O 4434.97 H 4495.16 L 4418.8 C 4493.42 V 53285
2026-09-03 13:00 O 4493.53 H 4510.73 L 4456.91 C 4486.2 V 99001
2026-09-03 17:00 O 4486.26 H 4494.62 L 4470.5 C 4473.31 V 37131
2026-09-03 21:00 O 4474.61 H 4487.1 L 4471.4 C 4486.37 V 25645
2026-09-04 01:00 O 4486.36 H 4487.14 L 4465.5 C 4473.76 V 53406
2026-09-04 05:00 O 4473.73 H 4490.77 L 4460.16 C 4477.8 V 55319
2026-09-04 09:00 O 4477.76 H 4479.2 L 4378.66 C 4393.89 V 59997
2026-09-04 13:00 O 4393.94 H 4448.93 L 4365.54 C 4436.36 V 102067
2026-09-04 17:00 O 4436.36 H 4440.37 L 4412.03 C 4430.1 V 47053
2026-09-06 21:00 O 4423.21 H 4435.18 L 4410.25 C 4412.64 V 29571
2026-09-07 01:00 O 4412.59 H 4419 L 4389.63 C 4398.01 V 59952
2026-09-07 05:00 O 4398.04 H 4423.89 L 4385.26 C 4411.04 V 57391
2026-09-07 09:00 O 4411.07 H 4413.74 L 4381.17 C 4396.79 V 38117
2026-09-07 13:00 O 4396.79 H 4419.57 L 4395.37 C 4414.46 V 40097
2026-09-07 17:00 O 4414.46 H 4415.03 L 4403.11 C 4406.34 V 4074
2026-09-07 21:00 O 4409.56 H 4430.13 L 4406.27 C 4426.16 V 38863
2026-09-08 01:00 O 4426.14 H 4442.93 L 4417.24 C 4436.1 V 68353
2026-09-08 05:00 O 4436.04 H 4437.8 L 4387.86 C 4394.19 V 74238
2026-09-08 09:00 O 4394.19 H 4411.71 L 4385.41 C 4411.45 V 63693
2026-09-08 13:00 O 4411.53 H 4412.86 L 4380.58 C 4393.54 V 87382
2026-09-08 17:00 O 4393.54 H 4403.66 L 4345.55 C 4355.54 V 63949
2026-09-08 21:00 O 4356 H 4365.58 L 4341.36 C 4364.74 V 32204
2026-09-09 01:00 O 4364.73 H 4384.4 L 4354.16 C 4381.58 V 59994
2026-09-09 05:00 O 4381.55 H 4412.75 L 4380.44 C 4400.61 V 51650
2026-09-09 09:00 O 4400.62 H 4415.37 L 4386.24 C 4400.13 V 55631
2026-09-09 13:00 O 4400.13 H 4434.08 L 4375.15 C 4409.56 V 96808
2026-09-09 17:00 O 4409.4 H 4421.51 L 4393.33 C 4400.85 V 47115
2026-09-09 21:00 O 4404.23 H 4406.49 L 4389.76 C 4401.12 V 33729
2026-09-10 01:00 O 4401.13 H 4420.91 L 4400.23 C 4408.46 V 71932
2026-09-10 05:00 O 4408.48 H 4434.73 L 4392.52 C 4394.92 V 65492
2026-09-10 09:00 O 4394.97 H 4400.19 L 4324.08 C 4340.07 V 83348
2026-09-10 13:00 O 4340.07 H 4376.24 L 4339.69 C 4364.04 V 108931
2026-09-10 17:00 O 4364.05 H 4367.95 L 4313.82 C 4316.55 V 71236
2026-09-10 21:00 O 4319.76 H 4334.03 L 4311.28 C 4332.06 V 36754
2026-09-11 01:00 O 4332.06 H 4340.4 L 4300.78 C 4331.74 V 79427
2026-09-11 05:00 O 4331.89 H 4360.86 L 4328.17 C 4346.97 V 70032
2026-09-11 09:00 O 4347.08 H 4390.03 L 4290.11 C 4388.61 V 70162
2026-09-11 13:00 O 4388.53 H 4402.46 L 4352.01 C 4361.73 V 110070
2026-09-11 17:00 O 4361.72 H 4370.41 L 4342.85 C 4349 V 58385
2026-09-13 21:00 O 4337 H 4347.49 L 4328.43 C 4338.59 V 39941
2026-09-14 01:00 O 4338.59 H 4355.32 L 4322.14 C 4329.47 V 68640
2026-09-14 05:00 O 4329.53 H 4338.6 L 4303.21 C 4306.63 V 66328
2026-09-14 09:00 O 4306.65 H 4311.7 L 4265.91 C 4271 V 69731
2026-09-14 13:00 O 4271.09 H 4317.67 L 4253.73 C 4315.74 V 99012
2026-09-14 17:00 O 4315.76 H 4316.46 L 4282.35 C 4298.58 V 55803
Recent news that may matter for XAUUSD (12 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-14 18:50 UTC] Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike (CNBC)
Traders were pricing in a better than 92% probability of a rate increase, as well as a more than 75% chance for another one in December.
- [2026-09-14 19:34 UTC] Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest - Reuters (Reuters)
Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest Reuters
- [2026-09-14 19:27 UTC] Not all tech is under fire in Monday's selling, while investors seek refuge in defensive stocks (CNBC)
Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.
- [2026-09-14 19:04 UTC] U.S. imposes Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB - Reuters (Reuters)
U.S. imposes Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB Reuters
- [2026-09-14 18:43 UTC] Is a 'SaaSpocalypse'-like sell-off coming for AI hardware stocks? Not so fast (CNBC)
Anthropic's safety warning is crushing data center stocks, but demand for compute still outstrips supply.
- [2026-09-14 17:16 UTC] As the oil surge continues, trader Mike Khouw sees more upside in this surging name (CNBC)
Michael Khouw breaks down how he's trading this energy name.
- [2026-09-14 16:11 UTC] Jim Cramer on why 'sitting on your hands' is worth it in this oversold market (CNBC)
The Investing Club holds its "Morning Meeting" every weekday at 10:20 a.m. ET.
- [2026-09-14 15:10 UTC] Senior Sunni cleric shot dead by unidentified gunmen in southeast Iran - Iranian state media - Reuters (Reuters)
Senior Sunni cleric shot dead by unidentified gunmen in southeast Iran - Iranian state media Reuters
- [2026-09-14 14:15 UTC] Etihad Airways says passenger numbers have rebounded from Iran war impact - Reuters (Reuters)
Etihad Airways says passenger numbers have rebounded from Iran war impact Reuters
- [2026-09-14 13:14 UTC] Here are our top 10 things to watch in the stock market Monday (CNBC)
AI semiconductor and infrastructure stocks are under heavy pressure ahead of Monday's open on Wall Street.
- [2026-09-14 13:00 UTC] Yemen's displaced long for loved ones, stability as Houthis advance - Reuters (Reuters)
Yemen's displaced long for loved ones, stability as Houthis advance Reuters
- [2026-09-14 12:59 UTC] AI stocks tumble on safety warnings. How to proceed — including 2 names on our shopping list (CNBC)
Jim Cramer offers a roadmap to navigate Monday's sell-off in AI stocks.
Task: assess the state of XAUUSD after this H4 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.
Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
"bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
"risks": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
"drivers": [
"short bullet strings"
],
"summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
"confidence": "integer 0-100",
"key_levels": {
"support": [
"number, nearest first"
],
"resistance": [
"number, nearest first"
]
},
"scalping_context": {
"notes": "one or two sentences",
"avoid_windows_utc": [
"HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
],
"preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
"volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
},
"invalidation_level": "number or null"
}news context
{
"items": [
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/counting-the-votes-warsh-faces-tough-battle-as-fed-girds-for-expected-rate-hike.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": true,
"summary": "Traders were pricing in a better than 92% probability of a rate increase, as well as a more than 75% chance for another one in December.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T18:50:32.000Z",
"headline": "Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxNNm15SzdOekVDNV9rUTlPanJOckRvYlVjbzNtRU1BVFlWLV9DUVFBRHIxQWwzbzZJNHNuUWt4VXpyM0piZVZCTjRXelNxMUN3ZHB4WXNuZmdoeTJvZkI5Mmp5azBwVGxRNU1qdEEwelJ4c3lCUGxORXRGUFkxckEwZFkwMjRIR3pUbnZhQnllUXp6ZVN2QllZeEg5LUhuVm9tdDhHZmhlTEt5RV8temxtSTJqb0RYWENfckZLTVV1RmlzNjQwdjBj?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T19:34:10.000Z",
"headline": "Billionaire Dangote launches oil refinery 'people's IPO', Africa's biggest - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/not-all-tech-is-under-fire-in-monday-selling-investors-seek-out-defensives.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T19:27:29.000Z",
"headline": "Not all tech is under fire in Monday's selling, while investors seek refuge in defensive stocks"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxPUV9iZ1hvNXptVGtUeEZ2X3Q1bkxtdm93Zm1neUNFdjlKM3Y2eElENzhEbHNpMFRRUXlGaWtUakU1al9wM3gtanR4R05saV9fWXVmNXlOWFUtQkpvRnJBbDdybE5CdVJtUmFRVDdLazdXRGljQUVVa0xpcUEzWHNpUEd5ZEhjOUlQMVMzY2hnamY1endIa0RZbFRlM3pKOUUx?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "U.S. imposes Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T19:04:23.000Z",
"headline": "U.S. imposes Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/is-a-saaspocalypse-like-sell-off-coming-for-ai-hardware-stocks-not-so-fast.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Anthropic's safety warning is crushing data center stocks, but demand for compute still outstrips supply.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T18:43:44.000Z",
"headline": "Is a 'SaaSpocalypse'-like sell-off coming for AI hardware stocks? Not so fast"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/as-the-oil-surge-continues-trader-mike-khouw-sees-more-upside-in-this-surging-name.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Michael Khouw breaks down how he's trading this energy name.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T17:16:23.000Z",
"headline": "As the oil surge continues, trader Mike Khouw sees more upside in this surging name"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/jim-cramer-on-why-sitting-on-your-hands-is-worth-it-in-this-oversold-market.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "The Investing Club holds its \"Morning Meeting\" every weekday at 10:20 a.m. ET.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T16:11:22.000Z",
"headline": "Jim Cramer on why 'sitting on your hands' is worth it in this oversold market"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPSXc0MkRtdlNRQUxNbjlDN3pHenA5cnEwdFBLU2ZPS3FBZDlpdXI4UDZ1WEZFQnZaemdZUVd6Q1JMOWNyc2s1QWZMU0YzWWVuSjl3V0hGS3BLTzFQWFZtalViVUZEcmduVElMUm0zU19oenVaUkdlRHAyUUF5TW9GelVoNlZyUktjV1FpQWNDbVRiOGdzNHg1X3JBNFRwZ0dDbGIyeWs2dWhVbERSVWJFYlhwLWtSSm00Z0ZIcDJtMXJ2U3dlY3pvZA?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Senior Sunni cleric shot dead by unidentified gunmen in southeast Iran - Iranian state media Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T15:10:56.000Z",
"headline": "Senior Sunni cleric shot dead by unidentified gunmen in southeast Iran - Iranian state media - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizwFBVV95cUxNYzdYYUtHSkVTSDY0dUZQVUZzdkY3WDVCZmgteEFHcXhrNGxmVmY5X1k4dGR3Z3o4ek9CdTNycWw3Z01jcHlRUFhJYllYLUd0V3JpRF9JVzY5eDh4WEFOVVBOSDd6RXhGa3lrSFFKVlBjV2cwMDhCdG5jcE1zN180Q0J1Y3lyVXNsWE9CaHBZWHlJZGtxdXNRWFlTWmVSR3RNV2dtR2RYV1JoU3VQcllHaUhIUEhMS2UwNzY4QzQxc2dwZjRQRFhtMkExRHI1Ukk?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Etihad Airways says passenger numbers have rebounded from Iran war impact Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T14:15:11.000Z",
"headline": "Etihad Airways says passenger numbers have rebounded from Iran war impact - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/here-are-our-top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-stock-market-monday.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "AI semiconductor and infrastructure stocks are under heavy pressure ahead of Monday's open on Wall Street.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T13:14:57.000Z",
"headline": "Here are our top 10 things to watch in the stock market Monday"
},
{
"url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxONDRXdHd5bkV2YlhUcGtEVzN3UE1oRnBXa0RKYkNUeDZtTFBWZThSaFRydWYwUUI0S0M1QThnbG9yZDF1OERhN2pFNVViSXRMTE9fa2VnQTNLeDhNS1BkMHJoZHgtTnVHOHlTcVVSRVZYR1NsWmpGbUlsekUzVk9zZGRvTGI2al9xNkRPUGtfZFhXWS1DeHJ5a3RjbEFxZ0doOGZjV0ZoNnQzOTR6SGZGalFB?oc=5",
"source": "Reuters",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Yemen's displaced long for loved ones, stability as Houthis advance Reuters",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T13:00:51.000Z",
"headline": "Yemen's displaced long for loved ones, stability as Houthis advance - Reuters"
},
{
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/ai-stocks-tumble-on-safety-warnings-how-to-proceed-including-2-names-on-our-shopping-list.html",
"source": "CNBC",
"matched": false,
"summary": "Jim Cramer offers a roadmap to navigate Monday's sell-off in AI stocks.",
"datetime": "2026-09-14T12:59:41.000Z",
"headline": "AI stocks tumble on safety warnings. How to proceed — including 2 names on our shopping list"
}
],
"fetched": 100,
"category": "general"
}Trigger context
{
"trigger": {
"low": 4282.35,
"high": 4316.46,
"open": 4315.76,
"time": 1789405200,
"close": 4298.58,
"source": "ea:797a99618d44",
"spread": 18,
"symbol": "XAUUSD",
"bar_time": "2026-09-14T17:00:00Z",
"timeframe": "H4",
"real_volume": 0,
"tick_volume": 55803
}
}