Run #29

system

You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).

user

Instrument: XAUUSD   Timeframe: H4   Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-13T21:00:00Z   Generated: 2026-09-14T01:00:04.421Z

Just-closed bar:  open 4337  high 4347.49  low 4328.43  close 4338.59  tick_volume 39941  spread 18

Recent H4 history, oldest first (60 bars):
time (UTC)          open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-08-31 01:00  O 4456.36  H 4463.28  L 4396.53  C 4424.56  V 44850
2026-08-31 05:00  O 4424.58  H 4449.47  L 4419.22  C 4435.58  V 39107
2026-08-31 09:00  O 4435.78  H 4464.06  L 4435.44  C 4435.75  V 35532
2026-08-31 13:00  O 4435.74  H 4448.27  L 4415.74  C 4433.2  V 57565
2026-08-31 17:00  O 4433.15  H 4455.85  L 4426.2  C 4448.44  V 42812
2026-08-31 21:00  O 4451.3  H 4461.5  L 4441.87  C 4453.67  V 19817
2026-09-01 01:00  O 4453.63  H 4456.86  L 4425.47  C 4426.59  V 36740
2026-09-01 05:00  O 4426.63  H 4445.99  L 4369.3  C 4370.82  V 46594
2026-09-01 09:00  O 4370.8  H 4387.14  L 4352  C 4356.27  V 48641
2026-09-01 13:00  O 4356.29  H 4375.53  L 4326.23  C 4351.3  V 63176
2026-09-01 17:00  O 4351.39  H 4351.95  L 4322.75  C 4328.78  V 46571
2026-09-01 21:00  O 4333.29  H 4335.68  L 4314.6  C 4315.87  V 21421
2026-09-02 01:00  O 4315.85  H 4326.65  L 4282.59  C 4307.22  V 42133
2026-09-02 05:00  O 4307.25  H 4331.57  L 4303.69  C 4312.83  V 45023
2026-09-02 09:00  O 4312.82  H 4344.37  L 4301.83  C 4331.45  V 45235
2026-09-02 13:00  O 4331.4  H 4397.64  L 4330.85  C 4368.23  V 59325
2026-09-02 17:00  O 4368.34  H 4391.47  L 4364.57  C 4387.53  V 39334
2026-09-02 21:00  O 4390.5  H 4397.81  L 4381.19  C 4395.38  V 17021
2026-09-03 01:00  O 4395.55  H 4438.35  L 4387.41  C 4437.4  V 38647
2026-09-03 05:00  O 4437.35  H 4443.5  L 4418.81  C 4434.91  V 45694
2026-09-03 09:00  O 4434.97  H 4495.16  L 4418.8  C 4493.42  V 53285
2026-09-03 13:00  O 4493.53  H 4510.73  L 4456.91  C 4486.2  V 99001
2026-09-03 17:00  O 4486.26  H 4494.62  L 4470.5  C 4473.31  V 37131
2026-09-03 21:00  O 4474.61  H 4487.1  L 4471.4  C 4486.37  V 25645
2026-09-04 01:00  O 4486.36  H 4487.14  L 4465.5  C 4473.76  V 53406
2026-09-04 05:00  O 4473.73  H 4490.77  L 4460.16  C 4477.8  V 55319
2026-09-04 09:00  O 4477.76  H 4479.2  L 4378.66  C 4393.89  V 59997
2026-09-04 13:00  O 4393.94  H 4448.93  L 4365.54  C 4436.36  V 102067
2026-09-04 17:00  O 4436.36  H 4440.37  L 4412.03  C 4430.1  V 47053
2026-09-06 21:00  O 4423.21  H 4435.18  L 4410.25  C 4412.64  V 29571
2026-09-07 01:00  O 4412.59  H 4419  L 4389.63  C 4398.01  V 59952
2026-09-07 05:00  O 4398.04  H 4423.89  L 4385.26  C 4411.04  V 57391
2026-09-07 09:00  O 4411.07  H 4413.74  L 4381.17  C 4396.79  V 38117
2026-09-07 13:00  O 4396.79  H 4419.57  L 4395.37  C 4414.46  V 40097
2026-09-07 17:00  O 4414.46  H 4415.03  L 4403.11  C 4406.34  V 4074
2026-09-07 21:00  O 4409.56  H 4430.13  L 4406.27  C 4426.16  V 38863
2026-09-08 01:00  O 4426.14  H 4442.93  L 4417.24  C 4436.1  V 68353
2026-09-08 05:00  O 4436.04  H 4437.8  L 4387.86  C 4394.19  V 74238
2026-09-08 09:00  O 4394.19  H 4411.71  L 4385.41  C 4411.45  V 63693
2026-09-08 13:00  O 4411.53  H 4412.86  L 4380.58  C 4393.54  V 87382
2026-09-08 17:00  O 4393.54  H 4403.66  L 4345.55  C 4355.54  V 63949
2026-09-08 21:00  O 4356  H 4365.58  L 4341.36  C 4364.74  V 32204
2026-09-09 01:00  O 4364.73  H 4384.4  L 4354.16  C 4381.58  V 59994
2026-09-09 05:00  O 4381.55  H 4412.75  L 4380.44  C 4400.61  V 51650
2026-09-09 09:00  O 4400.62  H 4415.37  L 4386.24  C 4400.13  V 55631
2026-09-09 13:00  O 4400.13  H 4434.08  L 4375.15  C 4409.56  V 96808
2026-09-09 17:00  O 4409.4  H 4421.51  L 4393.33  C 4400.85  V 47115
2026-09-09 21:00  O 4404.23  H 4406.49  L 4389.76  C 4401.12  V 33729
2026-09-10 01:00  O 4401.13  H 4420.91  L 4400.23  C 4408.46  V 71932
2026-09-10 05:00  O 4408.48  H 4434.73  L 4392.52  C 4394.92  V 65492
2026-09-10 09:00  O 4394.97  H 4400.19  L 4324.08  C 4340.07  V 83348
2026-09-10 13:00  O 4340.07  H 4376.24  L 4339.69  C 4364.04  V 108931
2026-09-10 17:00  O 4364.05  H 4367.95  L 4313.82  C 4316.55  V 71236
2026-09-10 21:00  O 4319.76  H 4334.03  L 4311.28  C 4332.06  V 36754
2026-09-11 01:00  O 4332.06  H 4340.4  L 4300.78  C 4331.74  V 79427
2026-09-11 05:00  O 4331.89  H 4360.86  L 4328.17  C 4346.97  V 70032
2026-09-11 09:00  O 4347.08  H 4390.03  L 4290.11  C 4388.61  V 70162
2026-09-11 13:00  O 4388.53  H 4402.46  L 4352.01  C 4361.73  V 110070
2026-09-11 17:00  O 4361.72  H 4370.41  L 4342.85  C 4349  V 58385
2026-09-13 21:00  O 4337  H 4347.49  L 4328.43  C 4338.59  V 39941

Recent news that may matter for XAUUSD (9 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-13 16:57 UTC] Here are the 2 big things we're watching in this week's stock market (CNBC)
  We're looking forward to what promises to be a consequential Federal Reserve meeting and a slew of conferences.
- [2026-09-13 23:33 UTC] Oil prices jump more than 2% after new strikes on Saudi, Strait of Hormuz - Reuters (Reuters)
  Oil prices jump more than 2% after new strikes on Saudi, Strait of Hormuz  Reuters
- [2026-09-13 22:51 UTC] Houthis' Yemen advance leaves Gulf states with uncomfortable choice - Reuters (Reuters)
  Houthis' Yemen advance leaves Gulf states with uncomfortable choice  Reuters
- [2026-09-13 19:14 UTC] Oman meeting between Gulf states and Iran postponed, Omani foreign minister says - Reuters (Reuters)
  Oman meeting between Gulf states and Iran postponed, Omani foreign minister says  Reuters
- [2026-09-13 16:56 UTC] Washington scrambles to meet calls for AI guardrails while the window to act closes (CNBC)
  The House is scheduled to be sent home in the coming days until after November's midterm elections, leaving a narrow window to pass any form of AI regulation.
- [2026-09-13 15:28 UTC] Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil, like Venezuela deal - Reuters (Reuters)
  Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil, like Venezuela deal  Reuters
- [2026-09-13 13:37 UTC] Turkey detains dozens after sweeping raids targeting LGBTQ+ groups - Reuters (Reuters)
  Turkey detains dozens after sweeping raids targeting LGBTQ+ groups  Reuters
- [2026-09-13 13:07 UTC] I'm a psychologist who studies couples: Emotionally intelligent partners ask 1 question every morning—that most neglect (CNBC)
  A "capacity check" might be the most thoughtful question to ask in the morning, says Mark Travers, a psychologist who studies relationships. How to do it right.
- [2026-09-13 02:22 UTC] New attacks in Hormuz and Saudi test nerves as war's spread worsens oil disruption - Reuters (Reuters)
  New attacks in Hormuz and Saudi test nerves as war's spread worsens oil disruption  Reuters

Task: assess the state of XAUUSD after this H4 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.

Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
  "bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
  "risks": [
    "short bullet strings"
  ],
  "regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
  "drivers": [
    "short bullet strings"
  ],
  "summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
  "confidence": "integer 0-100",
  "key_levels": {
    "support": [
      "number, nearest first"
    ],
    "resistance": [
      "number, nearest first"
    ]
  },
  "scalping_context": {
    "notes": "one or two sentences",
    "avoid_windows_utc": [
      "HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
    ],
    "preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
    "volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
  },
  "invalidation_level": "number or null"
}

{
  "items": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/13/here-are-the-2-big-things-were-watching-in-this-weeks-stock-market.html",
      "source": "CNBC",
      "matched": true,
      "summary": "We're looking forward to what promises to be a consequential Federal Reserve meeting and a slew of conferences.",
      "datetime": "2026-09-13T16:57:43.000Z",
      "headline": "Here are the 2 big things we're watching in this week's stock market"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxOcXNvWlpHUEh2bzNITUYtX04zUG1vclFCeDZ1NVdQTkNXUk5OTmRESElsUXUyQjNsYVU1d2tEMFlNRjB1VXVnenR4UHZzd3F3dEZWR2tWSVZMREFiZXF6NjR5SlB5VmdaNXpTWHQ3UF9POFRGanpoR0NxZUV3ZUU4alAycW9mcGdLak5lQ2NXdlpHQ3I3eDVRM3JDWmI3SGdYUjZsbnJSaUVySHk3UFl4Y3AxVGFZbmg5?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Oil prices jump more than 2% after new strikes on Saudi, Strait of Hormuz  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-13T23:33:26.000Z",
      "headline": "Oil prices jump more than 2% after new strikes on Saudi, Strait of Hormuz - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOX0JoY2VGb08xV0N2bWR6cnNzaFZoVm9MMGZ4WW1aa292SHNWTVBoVERfLW96ZVllX2thQjdUU1RMOTBvRkRoMGpDd2ZyMXVyb0t2bEFabVBJczM2SnhwM0w5c3diVnZiT1E4QnBxZ3YxaEVnYjE1cVJndExhaUloWENHQjlWdmtvUHRmNG1sSWtWQ3ZIRTJQUU5wQTFDaEw0MDVIdThHdnl5NnVCSTdHUmUwR3RPU0tXalFfSA?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Houthis' Yemen advance leaves Gulf states with uncomfortable choice  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-13T22:51:07.000Z",
      "headline": "Houthis' Yemen advance leaves Gulf states with uncomfortable choice - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPT01mN2pHSkgtLWNGSFhGWm9vSDBvNjlLVVB5N2lFRnczZ012SW1pZDdxTXRmY2NZWmw2MmRiOEJPZ1ZNdklvMkgxbXlEQXd6a3ozbWNrLTNaLWlMekNhalBBQjZTSXhEZEItM0s5WUM2cGN5akN6SXRVZVJseUR1M2Q1X2RoM2VBMEFMZHNrdVU0VUZyU2k5eWEtalNvbGVjQk5sS1NkbUV1QThfaUxocWV5NkVmRDBLQmdrNXJBQmp1ckhHTDBOdQ?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Oman meeting between Gulf states and Iran postponed, Omani foreign minister says  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-13T19:14:32.000Z",
      "headline": "Oman meeting between Gulf states and Iran postponed, Omani foreign minister says - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/13/ai-congress-anthropic-openai-crisis.html",
      "source": "CNBC",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "The House is scheduled to be sent home in the coming days until after November's midterm elections, leaving a narrow window to pass any form of AI regulation.",
      "datetime": "2026-09-13T16:56:17.000Z",
      "headline": "Washington scrambles to meet calls for AI guardrails while the window to act closes"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOc3NKNXdjMkx2Q2ZXOWVWU25Oa1hXRGFZcWJLRktNQWdoclBWVEJQdXhLMS1ZQV9TWHhmNlZSMTlIVXlSZWlWRGdrWXN2a2gxNzZiOWJlTUtVd2xIbW5tb0pJVVNGNFdmNWdEZktuV0JuT3pmaUF3VHYtZXotVklQWGt2YlEzN2Uwa21ac1I1bjlHRi1iM1VpMF90bFhJZk5wNl9aaG9rVmNsVkpUUUdF?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil, like Venezuela deal  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-13T15:28:53.000Z",
      "headline": "Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil, like Venezuela deal - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOSmw3N3gxSDF1TmZtV1BQY2s3cVUxZGRjbW1FdlBMelhLbUYtblpJc3dDa2thTjNUUkJCdXFINm96VVl3dlh5QWFYVlp2cjVnUnowTVJYWmhlUGlOZEtYUzNBOUlpM3o2MUJPNDBySDh5VFBic2Mta3R1YTJKNFkyUFBMcXZOd1hVaXZDMTVHaGxVZW96WkJzem8wR3pSY3EwQzBVTEVhUi1waTlfQl9KQVVfYw?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Turkey detains dozens after sweeping raids targeting LGBTQ+ groups  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-13T13:37:57.000Z",
      "headline": "Turkey detains dozens after sweeping raids targeting LGBTQ+ groups - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/13/emotionally-intelligent-couples-ask-question-every-morning-psychologist.html",
      "source": "CNBC",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "A \"capacity check\" might be the most thoughtful question to ask in the morning, says Mark Travers, a psychologist who studies relationships. How to do it right.",
      "datetime": "2026-09-13T13:07:01.000Z",
      "headline": "I'm a psychologist who studies couples: Emotionally intelligent partners ask 1 question every morning—that most neglect"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOUGctZFpGTW5Zd0h2OFl3V0FMR3o0MHVxNW5uSmN6cHpfNWRYRS1Sd0dibnUwUDRCY3VHejJlbUdNVkx6VmN3WTJQVGYtRjRHX1dWQllyQWl3TzEyWWoxY0JRaU45U0RMUTd0SHBvYmRLZmN4bjl3VF82emtKY1JiQzlsN3NqLThWcDk0UEdmaTlHWjJWd0k1b1VtVmVVUFpSZnFhSEZPUk9oeFlTeU5ZcTJKUlJUZjd6d3d2QWJiYmR2UQ?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "New attacks in Hormuz and Saudi test nerves as war's spread worsens oil disruption  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-13T02:22:00.000Z",
      "headline": "New attacks in Hormuz and Saudi test nerves as war's spread worsens oil disruption - Reuters"
    }
  ],
  "fetched": 100,
  "category": "general"
}