Run #24

XAUUSD H4 · bar 2026-09-11 05:00:00Z · succeeded · telegram sent

model
Grok 4.3
workflow
large-tf-analysis (large_tf_signal_analysis)
started
2026-09-11 09:00:22Z
finished
2026-09-11 09:00:32Z
tokens in / out
1789 / 301
cost
$0.0030
dedupe key
XAUUSD:H4:2026-09-11T05:00:00Z
artifact
analysis/large_tf_signal_analysis/XAUUSD/H4/2026-09-11T05:00:00Z.json

Result

{
  "bias": "neutral",
  "risks": [
    "yields climbing to 5.3% pressure gold",
    "volatile swings post-Iran news"
  ],
  "regime": "volatile",
  "drivers": [
    "Iran war and Hormuz disruption keep oil >100",
    "ECB hike + sanctions add inflation bid but gold failed to hold 4400"
  ],
  "summary": "H4 closed at 4346.97 after sharp drop from 4408 to 4313 and partial recovery. Price consolidating in 4300-4360 band with elevated volume. Geopolitical premium present but offset by higher yields and lack of follow-through buying.",
  "confidence": 55,
  "key_levels": {
    "support": [
      4328.17,
      4313.82,
      4300.78
    ],
    "resistance": [
      4360.86,
      4376.24,
      4392.52
    ]
  },
  "scalping_context": {
    "notes": "Range-bound chop likely; fade extremes inside 4315-4355 unless 4361 breaks with volume.",
    "avoid_windows_utc": [
      "20:00-22:00"
    ],
    "preferred_direction": "none",
    "volatility_expectation": "high"
  },
  "invalidation_level": 4300.78
}

Step 1 · analysis succeeded

model
Grok 4.3 xai / grok-4.3
template
large_tf_signal_analysis v1
tokens in / out
1789 / 301
cost
$0.0030
latency
8438 ms
logged
2026-09-11 09:00:32Z
{
  "bias": "neutral",
  "risks": [
    "yields climbing to 5.3% pressure gold",
    "volatile swings post-Iran news"
  ],
  "regime": "volatile",
  "drivers": [
    "Iran war and Hormuz disruption keep oil >100",
    "ECB hike + sanctions add inflation bid but gold failed to hold 4400"
  ],
  "summary": "H4 closed at 4346.97 after sharp drop from 4408 to 4313 and partial recovery. Price consolidating in 4300-4360 band with elevated volume. Geopolitical premium present but offset by higher yields and lack of follow-through buying.",
  "confidence": 55,
  "key_levels": {
    "support": [
      4328.17,
      4313.82,
      4300.78
    ],
    "resistance": [
      4360.86,
      4376.24,
      4392.52
    ]
  },
  "scalping_context": {
    "notes": "Range-bound chop likely; fade extremes inside 4315-4355 unless 4361 breaks with volume.",
    "avoid_windows_utc": [
      "20:00-22:00"
    ],
    "preferred_direction": "none",
    "volatility_expectation": "high"
  },
  "invalidation_level": 4300.78
}
rendered prompt

system

You are a senior discretionary market analyst supporting an automated, gold-focused scalping system that trades on JustMarkets (MT5). You analyse one large-timeframe bar close at a time and produce a structured, decision-useful assessment for the NEXT session(s). You are not placing trades; downstream systems size and time entries. Be concrete: price levels, direction, conditions. Prefer 'neutral' over a forced view when the evidence is mixed. Times are UTC; the broker's daily bar opens at 21:00 UTC. Respond with ONE JSON object only, no prose outside it, matching the requested schema exactly (numbers as numbers).

user

Instrument: XAUUSD   Timeframe: H4   Bar open (UTC): 2026-09-11T05:00:00Z   Generated: 2026-09-11T09:00:23.552Z

Just-closed bar:  open 4331.89  high 4360.86  low 4328.17  close 4346.97  tick_volume 70032  spread 18

Recent H4 history, oldest first (9 bars):
time (UTC)          open/high/low/close/tick_volume
2026-09-09 21:00  O 4404.23  H 4406.49  L 4389.76  C 4401.12  V 33729
2026-09-10 01:00  O 4401.13  H 4420.91  L 4400.23  C 4408.46  V 71932
2026-09-10 05:00  O 4408.48  H 4434.73  L 4392.52  C 4394.92  V 65492
2026-09-10 09:00  O 4394.97  H 4400.19  L 4324.08  C 4340.07  V 83348
2026-09-10 13:00  O 4340.07  H 4376.24  L 4339.69  C 4364.04  V 108931
2026-09-10 17:00  O 4364.05  H 4367.95  L 4313.82  C 4316.55  V 71236
2026-09-10 21:00  O 4319.76  H 4334.03  L 4311.28  C 4332.06  V 36754
2026-09-11 01:00  O 4332.06  H 4340.4  L 4300.78  C 4331.74  V 79427
2026-09-11 05:00  O 4331.89  H 4360.86  L 4328.17  C 4346.97  V 70032

Recent news that may matter for XAUUSD (12 items, newest first):
- [2026-09-10 22:46 UTC] Jim Cramer says this is the key force driving stocks right now (CNBC)
  CNBC's Jim Cramer said the 30-year Treasury yield is a key force driving stocks as it climbs to roughly 5.3%.
- [2026-09-10 15:18 UTC] ECB hikes rates as Iran war adds to inflation angst - Reuters (Reuters)
  ECB hikes rates as Iran war adds to inflation angst  Reuters
- [2026-09-10 10:44 UTC] Treasury yields move higher as investors await key wholesale inflation data (CNBC)
  Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday as traders await the release of U.S. wholesale inflation data.
- [2026-09-11 06:03 UTC] UK economy grows at fastest pace since February 2025 on possible AI boost - Reuters (Reuters)
  UK economy grows at fastest pace since February 2025 on possible AI boost  Reuters
- [2026-09-11 03:48 UTC] Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows - Reuters (Reuters)
  Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows  Reuters
- [2026-09-11 03:29 UTC] Five big takeaways from Trump's midterm convention - Reuters (Reuters)
  Five big takeaways from Trump's midterm convention  Reuters
- [2026-09-11 01:13 UTC] Oil prices set to end week above $100 for first time in nearly 4 months - Reuters (Reuters)
  Oil prices set to end week above $100 for first time in nearly 4 months  Reuters
- [2026-09-11 00:16 UTC] Trump says he does not regret Iran war despite impact it may have on midterm elections - Reuters (Reuters)
  Trump says he does not regret Iran war despite impact it may have on midterm elections  Reuters
- [2026-09-10 23:38 UTC] US average diesel price passes $6 a gallon for the first time, GasBuddy says - Reuters (Reuters)
  US average diesel price passes $6 a gallon for the first time, GasBuddy says  Reuters
- [2026-09-10 22:46 UTC] Trump administration to sanction unnamed 'large' bank on Monday, Bessent says - Reuters (Reuters)
  Trump administration to sanction unnamed 'large' bank on Monday, Bessent says  Reuters
- [2026-09-10 21:08 UTC] Photos of the week - Reuters (Reuters)
  Photos of the week  Reuters
- [2026-09-10 20:32 UTC] US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East - Reuters (Reuters)
  US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East  Reuters

Task: assess the state of XAUUSD after this H4 close for a scalping desk that will trade the next few hours (H4) or the next session (D1).
1. Regime and bias with a calibrated confidence (0-100).
2. Key support/resistance levels drawn from the history (actual prices, nearest first).
3. What drove the move and what could invalidate your view.
4. Scalping context: preferred direction (if any), volatility expectation, UTC windows to avoid (news, illiquid hours), and an invalidation level.

Return exactly this JSON shape:
{
  "bias": "bullish | bearish | neutral",
  "risks": [
    "short bullet strings"
  ],
  "regime": "trending_up | trending_down | ranging | volatile | quiet",
  "drivers": [
    "short bullet strings"
  ],
  "summary": "2-4 sentences, plain language",
  "confidence": "integer 0-100",
  "key_levels": {
    "support": [
      "number, nearest first"
    ],
    "resistance": [
      "number, nearest first"
    ]
  },
  "scalping_context": {
    "notes": "one or two sentences",
    "avoid_windows_utc": [
      "HH:MM-HH:MM strings"
    ],
    "preferred_direction": "long | short | both | none",
    "volatility_expectation": "low | normal | high"
  },
  "invalidation_level": "number or null"
}
news context
{
  "items": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/jim-cramer-key-force-driving-stocks-right-now.html",
      "source": "CNBC",
      "matched": true,
      "summary": "CNBC's Jim Cramer said the 30-year Treasury yield is a key force driving stocks as it climbs to roughly 5.3%.",
      "datetime": "2026-09-10T22:46:54.000Z",
      "headline": "Jim Cramer says this is the key force driving stocks right now"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxOY0VWcFhfaVg1bHdEUzlqVTlvNlREOFdweDVteVNCVWFCY29MVFJMRVdWeEJuSDAxWlY3cjU4ZGlxdkNremFBTThYSVQ5cFNBaTliSGMwbmJRR0NkNkwtUUhORFFwZ3gwLXJSZnNOR1ZfVDlEanZ5TzFNZ3FsX1hobnkyODI3cE96RkI2S3htVk5LRWNWbmF1c1FvNA?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": true,
      "summary": "ECB hikes rates as Iran war adds to inflation angst  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-10T15:18:26.000Z",
      "headline": "ECB hikes rates as Iran war adds to inflation angst - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/us-treasurys-bonds-yield.html",
      "source": "CNBC",
      "matched": true,
      "summary": "Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday as traders await the release of U.S. wholesale inflation data.",
      "datetime": "2026-09-10T10:44:07.000Z",
      "headline": "Treasury yields move higher as investors await key wholesale inflation data"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTE5XSDFBSllVM3pZWVBqSlo3UGhUaVB2VXpyTXJMMUVpTmQ0U3NrMjVFblZDZHJnY3pKbHJ3S0l1aWRFMmJGYWR3eTBidlU3aksybDVpMWJxaXk5anI3OXYtREoxbXh3R0ZTZUJ2cklkQVlmNi1YX0Rz?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "UK economy grows at fastest pace since February 2025 on possible AI boost  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-11T06:03:00.000Z",
      "headline": "UK economy grows at fastest pace since February 2025 on possible AI boost - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQUXNiYVFqaWhNQW1zamxmTm9HMEtQSFZhUDAzX3pEVzk2NnJleHYwNDFXT1YyeWRUS3ZGOHhIbmRGd0NoNVVIenZhUTVrWnd6VzdFbWs2RnVKTi16Zk94TDkzRU9qcDhuY0UtU293SDAwUVk5Wm40UVpzWEFFZm1JZUxuOE5fUkg1Q2VfeEdOX2hNeEVsRjdCTWZXS1lRdGVsZm1sa2RQUC1GYjNG?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-11T03:48:00.000Z",
      "headline": "Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxPblMxUVZ0cHpEajFnVlJxaWdUSzU1blRRck1tby1xTzFKemVMZHU4Q280eFdFTG5JSTFNRW5TU0hTREJ5dVB1cG5xbTBaSzFEa0RNQTFnMGJiRTdWc2N0UXoydWxYYi1peU05NHN6TE1XS3M1SVhWYkRFcUxWQzkzSmVRWUhnd0s0cUw5Ui1JNkJTaUU?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Five big takeaways from Trump's midterm convention  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-11T03:29:00.000Z",
      "headline": "Five big takeaways from Trump's midterm convention - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxORWZtMHZyX3Z0UkY2T285M3E2bElVVXRpdVhIVnZLQ1N4UjhKMTQ0UmZLWDlrQmRlcHFtZkN1SUcxSmNvVWhyelh4ZUhpZER2N2N5REE2aFR6Nm52YWRKY0xQRk16cE0tMFpRdkNjQm5YTDZ2RWFhcld2aWVHWUJMcFdncU1FUWVNNTgtX2VKcmpfZUNWZE1LenhwWDlGQmxreVF3Zjk4WlJ0N3hqODIxSQ?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Oil prices set to end week above $100 for first time in nearly 4 months  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-11T01:13:00.000Z",
      "headline": "Oil prices set to end week above $100 for first time in nearly 4 months - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNZmZLSXdlTkU0cmx1cTlYYV9KVUliY1k4aUNpNjQxZ2ZyamhIWklodVVZTW1rZkhhNEpwQmM0dFQycmhpR2NzeGVReVYyYjNtV281QlpyMDVHeFUzLTUteGc1NTl6SWhUdzQyZUtlblFkdTVPYUZ0bkt5WTg5dm9walJFeUE0aWJrQjVjZk5KY01OUUFPeHZ4b2pWVGZybWtIb3NOOVFBak9ZajA0WlQ3T3FzeHV2Zw?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Trump says he does not regret Iran war despite impact it may have on midterm elections  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-11T00:16:00.000Z",
      "headline": "Trump says he does not regret Iran war despite impact it may have on midterm elections - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxNS3FTSU5adzBIaU92QmVKNkt0UUVCV1FtbTZiN0Vqd0tseU1QeUxPal9NU1NLVVE4VnJDS1NkQUR6Y1NBaFp6RGVLSWg3Y0RjdFlHRnMzdFVFM0F6R2ZCSGdNZ0pLcExYYXh0dHdZRGl2Wkkwb2l4WWFiYUtxU2FnRjJ2OUh0QXlPcXlGcFhDRUEtdzNRRnZ4eS1hV3dRZlRHMGxhU09lZWZJU3RkX0Npei1xLWpkRFU?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "US average diesel price passes $6 a gallon for the first time, GasBuddy says  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-10T23:38:37.000Z",
      "headline": "US average diesel price passes $6 a gallon for the first time, GasBuddy says - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPQ203a2pwbUU5aVVPVUtBUHB4dWRXa2YtM2pYZzMtVWU3SXJqZUNZTmtrTWt6dmFsMm82YzJzUERqeExQYzVhXzl4REJpRk54SEZIblVEckJ5M0pVWHhUdDNUUTZiNzdyUlc3b0h2SjBhZFFQRk5pOTlCZlYzeTJkeXhkQURpbnB6Z1JfcFB5bl9walRKZUdfekNPaGVETHc0aTFfb3pZdlBZaXB1SkRSSjFLaUp3aTBXeXgybWFR?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Trump administration to sanction unnamed 'large' bank on Monday, Bessent says  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-10T22:46:20.000Z",
      "headline": "Trump administration to sanction unnamed 'large' bank on Monday, Bessent says - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE5Panl3TGVIUExwbGFJUUJ3bnBpV2cxUjNhTkpIbzlpclRoZGxpb0dOTGE3SFZTN3llQkVzTUU3RnpxbThUd1VHY1pVWHo0Sm8tSlZ3bWZ3M0tFNFp4dm9rbzQ4eUdEbTg?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "Photos of the week  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-10T21:08:00.000Z",
      "headline": "Photos of the week - Reuters"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQQ2p0aERlM3VXMFFWMkg4ZUtIejRIWDdUNUtlbnkwLWlyTWFBNGMyUzBUVnczaGdsNGIxcjJNT3BIekZrQXhOVEdwY0ZaQ0RZVmE2SW5RWTdLN1F6M01vbXZyMXF1OE9XbHphN1dnRWxwWmNyV2V2WDg3dGVOTDR3TXd5dDFwcEl6X2pxd05LRmc4d2NkUzFMS3piTFg1eWppdW8xNWNHd0VYZ3EwOFM4a19SMmNkeE9TZlE?oc=5",
      "source": "Reuters",
      "matched": false,
      "summary": "US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East  Reuters",
      "datetime": "2026-09-10T20:32:11.000Z",
      "headline": "US slaps new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in Middle East - Reuters"
    }
  ],
  "fetched": 100,
  "category": "general"
}

Trigger context

{
  "trigger": {
    "low": 4328.17,
    "high": 4360.86,
    "open": 4331.89,
    "time": 1789102800,
    "close": 4346.97,
    "source": "ea:797a99618d44",
    "spread": 18,
    "symbol": "XAUUSD",
    "bar_time": "2026-09-11T05:00:00Z",
    "timeframe": "H4",
    "real_volume": 0,
    "tick_volume": 70032
  }
}

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